Preqin Forecasts Global Private Markets AUM to Exceed $34 Trillion by end of 2031

Preqin, part of BlackRock, forecasts private-markets assets under management will exceed $34 trillion by 2031. Its annual report covers fundraising, performance and AUM across private equity, private credit, venture capital and infrastructure; the article excerpt provides no further forecast detail.

Analysis

The forecast is a favorable narrative for BlackRock’s alternatives ambitions, but it is not evidence of incremental earnings: private-market AUM growth only benefits BLK if it translates into net fundraising, fee-bearing assets, and monetizable Preqin data products. AUM can rise through valuation marks without equivalent cash inflows, while competition for institutional allocations may compress fees or displace other strategies. The second-order risk is that rapid private-credit growth raises scrutiny of valuation frequency, liquidity terms, and borrower quality; any visible stress could weigh on confidence in the category and listed alternative managers, even if BlackRock’s own exposure differs.

Near term, expect limited price discovery from a multi-year industry forecast absent company-level guidance or flow data. Over 1–3 months, monitor BLK alternatives fundraising, fee-generating AUM, Preqin monetization commentary, and private-credit performance disclosures. Over 6–18 months, sustained allocations could support a more durable growth narrative; weak fundraising, fee dilution, or credit losses would undermine it. The contrarian point: headline AUM growth may overstate investable opportunity and understate the competition and liquidity costs required to capture it. Thesis is falsified if BLK reports accelerating alternatives fee revenue and net inflows despite sector stress; the bear case weakens if fundraising and fee rates hold up through credit deterioration.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate directional trade on this forecast alone; treat it as a modest narrative tailwind for BLK, not a standalone earnings catalyst.
• Put BLK on a 1–3 month watchlist: verify alternatives net inflows, fee-bearing AUM, and management commentary on Preqin revenue contribution before adding exposure.
• For a conditional relative-value expression, consider long BLK versus a basket of listed alternative managers only if BLK demonstrates superior fee-bearing growth; do not initiate until comparable fundraising and fee data are available.
• Reassess the sector thesis if private-credit disclosures show rising defaults, valuation markdowns, or liquidity restrictions, or if BLK’s alternatives fundraising and fee revenue fail to convert broader market growth into reported results.