3 Overlooked Autonomous Vehicle Stocks Investors Should Jump On

The article argues the AV/robotaxi opportunity could scale to ~$415B globally by 2035 and highlights autonomous trucking forecasts (e.g., 40% of U.S. semitruck miles by 2040; global AV trucking ~$560B by 2035). For Mobileye, it cites ~70% global ADAS market share and an $24.5B eight-year auto revenue pipeline (up 42% YoY per the piece). Uber is framed as a high-upside but uncertain AV partner story given Waymo’s stated intent to unwind the partnership. Overall, it’s a stock-picking/forward-looking thesis piece with limited direct earnings/news catalysts, so likely modest near-term impact.

Analysis

The cleanest takeaway is that the market should not price the AV theme as one trade. The economic payoff is likely to accrue first to infrastructure and software layers with embedded distribution, not to aspirational robo-fleet operators whose revenues may stay option-like for years. That makes MBLY the most defensible pick: if OEMs keep outsourcing ADAS stack complexity, its margin mix should improve even before true AV monetization, while suppliers that lack equivalent switching costs are likely to see design-win pressure.

AUR is more binary. The 2027 per-mile model creates operating leverage if hub-to-hub trucking economics clear the human-driver hurdle, but it also shifts the burden of proof to utilization, insurance, and uptime; any slip there pushes the cash-burn inflection right when capital markets may be less forgiving. The second-order loser is not just incumbent trucking, but also adjacent freight intermediaries and margin-capture businesses that rely on driver scarcity to sustain pricing power.

UBER is the most mispriced debate. The consensus treats AV partnerships as additive, but the real risk is platform disintermediation: once autonomous fleets have enough demand density, they may route around the aggregator and keep more of the unit economics. That said, this is a 12-24 month issue, not a next-quarter catalyst, so the stock should only weaken materially if Waymo-style direct distribution expands beyond a single partner and starts showing up in gross bookings or take-rate commentary.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long MBLY on pullbacks over the next 1-3 months; best risk/reward is as a picks-and-shovels compounder with visible pipeline support. Falsify if OEM design wins slow or auto revenue pipeline stops expanding.
• Pair trade: long MBLY / short UBER for 6-12 months as a relative-value expression of 'embedded distribution' versus 'platform disintermediation' risk. Exit if Uber’s AV partners explicitly recommit to the platform model.
• No chase on AUR at current levels; use as a watchlist name only until 2027 per-mile economics are independently evidenced by margin per mile, insurance costs, and utilization. A missed commercial ramp would likely compress the multiple sharply.
• Avoid overexposure to TSLA/GOOGL/AMZN purely on AV optionality; the AV contribution is likely immaterial to near-term earnings and may already be embedded in valuation. Prefer waiting for either a regulatory catalyst or a measurable revenue line item.