Bill Ackman Says Pershing Square Has Achieved a 20% Gross Annual Return Since Inception and Aims to Keep Beating That Bar. Can His Newly Launched Funds Live Up to the Track Record?

Pershing Square’s new public fund, Pershing Square USA (PSUS), launched at $50/share (Apr. 29) and is now around $39/share, down ~21% versus the S&P 500’s +7% over the same period. Ackman says the strategy has delivered ~15.6% compound annual returns since 2004 (and ~20% gross) and expects holdings to grow EPS at ≥15% annually for 3-5 years, with discounted multiples. The firm also plans to launch Pershing Square Ventures for access to pre-IPO/private high-growth deals (expected debut by end-2026), but near-term performance is being questioned by the stock drawdown.

Analysis

PSUS looks less like a stock-picking opportunity than a structure problem: a concentrated, non-redeemable wrapper around large-cap quality names is likely to trade on sentiment, fees, and discount-to-NAV mechanics more than on the manager’s long-term track record. In the next 1-3 months, the key question is whether the vehicle gets incremental flow from brand recognition or instead settles into a persistent discount as holders realize they can replicate most of the exposure directly and cheaper.

The second-order winner is Ackman’s franchise economics, not necessarily the listed portfolio. If the new venture vehicle eventually sources private growth deals, it could create optionality in late-stage financings where public-market discipline and AI adjacency matter, but that is a 6-18 month story and not an immediate earnings catalyst for the current holdings. The more relevant competitive effect is fee compression pressure on other crossover/growth platforms if a lower-cost, brand-name public vehicle attracts retail and advisor attention.

Contrarian take: the market may be overfocused on the reputation premium and underfocused on structural leakage. Without a visible mechanism to close the discount—repurchases, tender offers, or materially better NAV compounding—PSUS can remain a mediocre trade even if the underlying names perform well. The thesis is falsified if the discount narrows into the low single digits or if the next report shows persistent outperformance relative to a directly owned basket after fees.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer direct ownership of MSFT/META/UBER/AMZN over PSUS for the next 1-3 months; the wrapper likely adds fee drag and discount risk without incremental alpha unless NAV data proves otherwise.
• If PSUS trades at a >10-15% discount to NAV after the next report, consider a short PSUS / long equal-weight basket of its top liquid holdings as a relative-value trade; target mean reversion in 4-8 weeks, cover if the discount structurally narrows.
• Do not force a long on PSUS solely on brand name; only buy on a capitulation setup with improving discount statistics and clear capital-allocation support from management.
• Set an alert for the forthcoming venture-fund terms and launch timeline; this is a 6-18 month catalyst for fee-earning expansion, not an immediate market-moving event.
• Watch for any announced buyback/tender policy in PSUS—if introduced, it becomes the primary catalyst that could invalidate the discount thesis and shift the trade from avoid to long.