FERRARI N.V.: PERIODIC REPORT ON THE BUYBACK PROGRAM

Ferrari disclosed additional common-share purchases under the €250 million third tranche of its buyback program announced September 1, 2026. The tranche forms part of Ferrari's approximately €3.5 billion multi-year repurchase authorization targeted for execution through 2030, as outlined at its 2025 Capital Markets Day. The supplied text does not specify the number of shares purchased or the aggregate consideration for the latest transactions.

Analysis

The near-term mechanical support is real but likely modest relative to RACE's liquidity and valuation: a buyback primarily reduces free float and cushions drawdowns rather than changing the earnings trajectory that supports a luxury multiple. The more investable signal is management's capital-allocation posture—continued repurchases imply confidence that funding product development, including electrification, does not require conserving incremental balance-sheet capacity. This can limit multiple downside over the next 1-3 months if broader luxury sentiment weakens.

Second-order, RACE's return-of-capital framework reinforces its differentiation from volume luxury OEMs such as Porsche AG (P911) and Aston Martin (AML), where cyclical demand, incentives, and financing conditions exert greater pressure on margins and equity duration. But the program is not independently evidence that current intrinsic value exceeds the market price; at a premium earnings multiple, repurchases can become a drag on per-share value if unit growth, personalization mix, or pricing fail to meet expectations over the next 6-18 months.

Consensus may over-credit each daily repurchase disclosure as a fresh catalyst. The relevant swing factor is whether buyback execution coincides with upward EPS revisions from mix and pricing, versus merely offsetting valuation compression from slower global luxury spending. Falsify a constructive view if management cuts delivery/EBIT margin expectations, net order intake normalizes materially, or the share price rises while forward EPS estimates remain flat—conditions under which the buyback's effective support diminishes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain or initiate a modest long RACE only on market-led weakness over the next 1-3 months; target a 10-15% upside from multiple stabilization plus EPS support, with a stop/review trigger on a material reduction in EBIT-margin or order-book guidance.
• Express relative quality through long RACE / short P911 over a 6-12 month horizon, sized beta-neutral. RACE's scarcity-driven pricing and capital return profile should be more resilient than a volume-exposed luxury OEM; exit if P911's margin revisions turn positive while RACE's forward EPS revisions turn negative.
• Do not chase daily buyback disclosures or add solely because of announced repurchase capacity. Upgrade conviction only if subsequent results demonstrate continued pricing/personalization growth and buybacks are funded from sustainable FCF rather than incremental leverage.
• Monitor monthly luxury-demand indicators, RACE consensus FY earnings revisions, and EUR/USD. A strengthening euro alongside flat earnings revisions is a near-term risk to ADR returns and warrants reducing tactical exposure.