Only 1 Nasdaq-100 Stock Yields More Than 10-Year Treasuries at 5%. Here's My Top Pick to Buy Now.

Comcast offers a 5.8% dividend yield, making it the only Nasdaq-100 constituent yielding more than 5% and above the 10-year Treasury yield, while trading at less than 7x forward earnings. The stock has declined 23% over the past year and more than halved over five years as cable subscriber losses and slowing broadband growth pressure revenue. The bullish case centers on the planned 2027 NBCUniversal spinoff, including profitable Peacock, theme parks and a movie studio with two 2026 releases exceeding $1B in worldwide ticket sales, alongside 18 consecutive years of dividend increases.

Analysis

CMCSA’s apparent income premium is not, by itself, a valuation catalyst: the market is pricing a structurally declining connectivity earnings base and uncertainty over the post-separation capital structure. The key underwriting variable is whether broadband ARPU, churn and network capex can stabilize before fixed-wireless substitution meaningfully erodes cable EBITDA; TMUS and VZ are the clearest share-gain beneficiaries if that does not occur. A low earnings multiple can expand only if management demonstrates that subscriber losses are being offset by price, mobile attach and capex discipline rather than merely financial engineering.

The NBCUniversal separation could surface a higher media/parks/studio multiple, but the critical second-order issue is allocation of debt, pension/lease obligations, corporate overhead and tax leakage. If the remaining connectivity entity retains disproportionate leverage or loses shared-cost absorption, its dividend coverage could deteriorate even while the separated asset trades well. Conversely, a clean structure with independently disclosed parks, Peacock and studio economics could force investors to value CMCSA as a sum of parts rather than a cable proxy over the next 6-18 months.

Near term, this is primarily a yield-support and positioning story, not a reason to chase a rebound. The contrarian opportunity is that the market may be over-penalizing the cable operation while assigning little residual value to the separation optionality; the contrarian risk is that consensus is anchoring on reported EPS while underestimating the pace of broadband volume pressure. Watch quarterly broadband net adds, connectivity EBITDA margin, annual capex, and explicit post-spin leverage/dividend targets—these will matter more than headline streaming or box-office commentary.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain CMCSA as a watch-to-buy rather than an event-day purchase; initiate a 6-12 month position only after management provides pro forma leverage, dividend policy and stranded-cost disclosure for the NBCUniversal separation. Target a mid-teens total-return outcome from yield plus partial sum-of-parts rerating; exit if connectivity EBITDA declines accelerate for two consecutive quarters or dividend coverage becomes dependent on incremental leverage.
• For a hedged expression, consider long CMCSA / short CHTR over 6-12 months after confirming CMCSA’s separation terms. CMCSA has a differentiated asset-unlock catalyst, while CHTR remains more directly exposed to cable economics and balance-sheet sensitivity; size modestly because both can rally if rates fall sharply.
• Use TMUS and VZ quarterly fixed-wireless additions as a negative read-through alert for CMCSA. A sustained reacceleration in fixed-wireless net adds alongside worsening CMCSA broadband losses would invalidate the stabilization thesis and favors reducing CMCSA rather than averaging down.
• Do not underwrite the dividend as a bond substitute until post-spin cash-flow allocation is known. If the board commits to preserving the payout while retaining elevated net leverage, treat that as a warning that buybacks and network investment may be constrained, limiting multiple expansion.