Goldman adds 4 new names to its favorite stocks list — including a 143% upside defense call

Goldman Sachs added Solaria, Straumann, Scout24 and IMCD to its October European Conviction List, assigning respective upside potential of 52%, 38%, 64% and 40%. The bank also identified Rheinmetall and Adyen as among six names with more than 70% upside, including 143% for Rheinmetall and 111% for Adyen. The new selections are supported by Solaria's data-center and storage opportunity, Scout24's subscriber growth and margin expansion, Straumann's recovering growth outlook, and IMCD's expected EBITA-margin expansion from 10.4% in 2025 to 27% in 2027.

Analysis

This is primarily a sell-side positioning catalyst rather than new fundamental information; the highest-probability near-term effect is incremental flow into relatively less-owned continental European mid-caps. G24 has the cleanest self-help setup: subscriber-led revenue carries high incremental margins, while deleveraging creates a credible buyback/M&A rerating pathway over the next 12-18 months. The key sensitivity is German housing transaction and rental-market activity; a weaker consumer or renewed rate backup would delay premium-product adoption despite resilient listing economics.

SLR offers asymmetric optionality but should be treated as a development/contract-execution trade, not simply a solar beta. Monetizing grid-connected land and generation capacity through data-center or storage contracts could shift valuation from merchant-power exposure toward infrastructure-like contracted cash flows, but only once counterparties, pricing, capex obligations and grid timelines are disclosed. In the next 1-3 months, power-price volatility and Spanish regulatory headlines dominate; over 6-18 months, contracted capacity conversion is the true catalyst and project delays are the primary falsifier.

IMCD's margin thesis warrants skepticism: a move to 27% EBITA would represent a dramatic economic-model change for a distributor and requires verification of metric definitions, acquisition accounting, and organic gross-margin progression. Higher input prices support nominal revenue but can also pressure working capital and customer volumes; the more durable edge is technical-service content and supplier exclusivity. STMN is a quality recovery candidate, but discretionary procedure demand makes an earnings rerating dependent on tangible China growth and orthodontics loss reduction rather than a multiple rebound alone.

Contrarian view: the headline upside figures are least actionable in RHM and ADYEN, where crowded narrative exposure raises de-rating risk if order conversion or take-rate expectations merely normalize. Better risk-adjusted alpha is likely in underappreciated cash-flow inflections—G24 and selectively IMCD—rather than chasing the largest published target-price gaps.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 6-12 month long G24 position, preferably funded by a short in a broader European real-estate proxy such as IPRP, to isolate platform monetization from rate beta. Target a 20-30% rerating if private-subscriber growth and EBITDA margins accelerate; exit if subscriber adds miss for two consecutive quarters or net leverage fails to decline.
• Build SLR only in tranches over the next 1-3 months; cap initial risk at 50% of intended size until a named data-center/storage agreement discloses contracted MW, duration and required capex. Upside is a multiple reset on contracted infrastructure cash flows; downside is material if Spanish power pricing weakens or grid-connection milestones slip.
• Place IMCD on an earnings-confirmation watch rather than underwriting the stated margin endpoint today. Go long after evidence of organic EBITA-margin expansion and stable working-capital intensity; a long IMCD/short commodity-chemical exposure pair can capture specialization value while reducing chemical-cycle beta.
• Use STMN as a tactical 6-9 month recovery long only if China sales and orthodontics losses improve at the next results. Pair against a more U.S.-procedure-sensitive dental/medtech proxy where possible; thesis fails if U.S. elective-procedure weakness broadens or China pricing reform compresses realized pricing.
• Avoid adding directional RHM or ADYEN exposure solely on published upside. For existing longs, tighten risk around order-intake conversion for RHM and volume/take-rate trends for ADYEN; both are vulnerable to 15-25% multiple compression on even modest expectation resets.