Nasdaq 100 Today: Chip Buyers Return but Earnings Risk Stays High

This is a short-covering rally inside a damaged trend, not evidence that the growth complex has been repaired. Breadth is too narrow for confidence, so the next 1-3 sessions matter more than the next 1-3 months: earnings will determine whether systematic buyers re-engage or whether the recent bounce becomes another lower high.

The important second-order read-through is not the AI-chip headline itself, but the shift in bargaining power it implies. If hyperscalers keep moving silicon in-house, the pricing power sits more with platform owners than with merchant suppliers, which is a negative for the group’s multiple structure even if unit demand remains healthy. That makes INTC and TXN more about proof of end-demand and margin durability than about the market’s AI enthusiasm; SNDK is the highest-beta expression and most vulnerable if guidance is merely fine rather than strong.

Geopolitics is the other factor that can break the bounce. Any oil spike would push inflation expectations higher and hit duration-sensitive names first, with TSLA and the broader Nasdaq most exposed. Contrarian view: the market may be overcalling this as a fresh tech bid; it still looks more like a tradable squeeze unless the index reclaims its moving-average resistance after earnings. Falsifier for the bearish setup is a post-earnings close back above the key resistance band with improving breadth, not just one green session.