Nvidia Stock Could Surge by 2028: Here's How Beginners Can Get In Now According to Motley Fool's Price Estimates

The article argues Nvidia remains attractively valued despite its roughly $5 trillion market capitalization, citing a trailing P/E of 29 versus 25 for the S&P 500 and a forward P/E of 14.6x based on projected fiscal-2028 EPS of $15.68. Wall Street is forecast to deliver 91% revenue growth this year and 66% next year, and the author contends the stock could double in less than 18 months if it maintains its current valuation multiple and meets earnings forecasts. The piece is bullish on sustained AI demand but notes that stock-price gains are not guaranteed.

Analysis

This is retail-flow reinforcement rather than new fundamental information. The relevant near-term transmission is incremental recurring purchase activity and social momentum in NVDA, but a $5T-scale, highly liquid name requires institutional estimate revisions—not retail accessibility—to sustain outperformance. Treat any immediate strength as a sentiment extension, particularly if it occurs without upward revisions to fiscal-2028 EPS or evidence that hyperscaler capex is broadening beyond the current buyers.

The valuation argument conflates a stated forward multiple with a multi-year EPS forecast and assumes both earnings delivery and unchanged multiple. At this maturity of the AI investment cycle, the more important risk is not a collapse in AI demand but a shift from training infrastructure to inference, where custom silicon from hyperscalers and merchant alternatives from AMD could reduce NVDA's incremental pricing power. Gross-margin guidance, Blackwell/Rubin supply availability, and customer concentration will matter more than headline revenue growth over the next 1-3 quarters.

Contrarian read: bullish retail content is unlikely to be a standalone catalyst and is mildly useful as a crowded-positioning warning after a large run. A sustained multiple expansion from here needs proof that AI deployment produces downstream enterprise ROI, which would support a second capex leg over 6-18 months; absent that proof, even strong reported results can produce sell-the-news reactions as the growth rate normalizes. No brokerage trade is warranted from this article: HOOD, IBKR and SCHW have immaterial earnings sensitivity to fractional-share activity in one mega-cap.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain NVDA only as a core AI exposure; do not add solely on retail-driven strength. Add on post-earnings confirmation that data-center revenue and gross-margin guidance exceed consensus, with a 3-6 month horizon; reduce if forward EPS estimates stop rising for two consecutive revision cycles.
• Express a lower-beta AI view through a pair: long NVDA / short AMD in equal beta-adjusted dollars over 1-3 months if NVDA's next guidance confirms supply-led demand while AMD does not close the accelerator-software gap. Falsifier: material MI-series design-win or revenue guidance upside at AMD, or NVDA gross-margin guidance below expectations.
• For existing NVDA longs, use 3-6 month put spreads rather than outright profit-taking around earnings if implied volatility is not elevated: downside risk is multiple compression from slowing capex growth, while upside remains capped by already demanding expectations. Size the hedge to protect against a 15-20% post-print drawdown.
• Monitor hyperscaler capex guidance, NVDA data-center gross margin, and custom-silicon disclosures from AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT as the actionable alerts. A synchronized reduction in 2027 capex commentary would be the first signal to cut AI-semiconductor beta, regardless of current-quarter NVDA results.