Josh Brown takes a look at winners and losers on his Best Stocks list as Q4 begins

The retrospective highlights Intel (+214% year to date) and Valero (+142%) as major winners, supported by Intel's data-center and AI revenue growth and a sharp improvement in Valero's refining earnings. CRH fell 31% year to date and First Solar fell 32%, with higher rates weighing on both; the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24%, while First Solar's backlog declined to 45.1 GW from 54.5 GW. The contributors reset risk levels for Intel and Valero and emphasize selective entry and risk management rather than treating list inclusion as a buy signal.

Analysis

The actionable signal is not simply momentum; it is a widening split between rate-sensitive duration and businesses exposed to constrained physical markets. If yields stay high, financing costs can pressure project economics and valuation multiples simultaneously for solar and construction materials. That does not make either automatically cheap: FSLR’s shrinking backlog is a reason to test order quality and cancellations, while CRH’s pending Arcosa transaction may limit capital-return flexibility before residential demand improves. Verify backlog conversion, segment margins and deal funding before treating either as a rates-only recovery.

For refiners, the key second-order variable is the product-crude spread, not the crude price alone. VLO, MPC and PSX may benefit from tight product inventories, but a reopening of shipping lanes or normalization of refinery supply could compress crack spreads even if crude remains elevated. The geopolitical premium therefore makes VLO’s earnings less durable than the chart suggests.

INTC’s near-term catalyst is its Oct. 22 report: server CPU demand and supply constraints need to translate into sustained revenue and margins, while the foundry thesis remains a longer-dated execution test. META-related demand narratives are not yet proof of incremental, durable CPU economics. A high-yield environment and volatile energy headlines raise reversal risk across these momentum trades; the article’s technical levels are useful risk triggers, not fundamental valuation floors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• VLO: Avoid chasing near the recent high. Consider a close above $418 as a momentum-entry confirmation; use a close below $365 as a trader exit and a weekly close below $350 as a longer-horizon thesis warning. Reduce exposure if shipping disruption eases or refining spreads weaken; monitor crack spreads and product inventories rather than crude alone.
• INTC: Prefer waiting for the Oct. 22 report over adding ahead of earnings. A sustained break above $127 could support a continuation trade; a close below $110 weakens the near-term setup, and a weekly close below $100 invalidates the longer-term technical thesis. Falsifier: guidance or data-center economics fail to confirm demand strength.
• FSLR / CRH: Keep as rate-sensitive watchlist shorts or underweights, not automatic shorts after large declines. Reassess if long yields retreat and order/backlog conversion or Americas demand improves; for CRH, also verify Arcosa financing and post-deal capital allocation. A further rise in yields with deteriorating operating indicators would strengthen the downside case.
• Relative-value watch: Long a basket of VLO/MPC/PSX against FSLR/CRH only as a modest, risk-controlled expression of physical tightness versus rate-sensitive demand—not a clean hedge. Exit or rebalance if refining spreads normalize while yields fall, since both legs could then reverse together.