Mall of America® survey reveals nearly half of shoppers plan to use AI, but people and stores lead holiday gift inspiration

Mall of America’s survey of 1,775 consumers found 45% expect to use AI in at least one way for holiday shopping, but fewer than 1% ranked it as their top source for gift ideas; friends and family led at 50%. Sixty-one percent plan to seek more deals, while 27% expect to spend less than last year, down from 34% in 2025, and 16% expect to spend more. A majority (68%) plan to shop through a mix of online and in-person channels, and technology and electronics topped expected spending categories at 26%.

Analysis

This is a weak demand signal, not an earnings revision: stated holiday intentions from a mall-sponsored online survey are not realized spending, and the source has an incentive to emphasize in-person appeal. The more investable implication is channel mix. AI appears positioned as a utility for comparison and deal-finding, not yet as a trusted inspiration channel. If that pattern holds, AI could increase price transparency and push retailers toward heavier promotions or paid placement to retain discovery—potentially pressuring margins even if shopping activity remains resilient. Conversely, physical retailers with dining, entertainment, and distinctive seasonal experiences may be less substitutable than stores competing mainly on price. The technology-category preference is not automatically bullish for electronics retailers: demand could shift toward lower-margin, heavily promoted products.

Near term, this survey alone should not move estimates. Over the next 1–3 months, watch reported holiday traffic, comparable sales, average transaction value, and markdown commentary from retailers such as Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Macy’s; the survey provides no company-level read-through. Over 6–18 months, the key structural question is whether AI shopping agents redirect product discovery and purchase traffic away from retailer-owned channels, or simply become another source of price comparison.

Contrarian read: less reliance on AI for gift inspiration does not mean AI is commercially irrelevant; its value may accrue through conversion and price discovery rather than consumer-reported preference. But the survey does not establish incremental spend or economics. No trade is warranted on this evidence alone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate position: treat the survey as low-confidence sentiment data, not a basis for changing holiday sales or margin forecasts.
• Monitor holiday updates from Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Macy’s for comparable-sales strength alongside markdown rates and gross-margin commentary. Strong sales paired with stable promotions would falsify the concern that deal-seeking is chiefly margin-destructive.
• Add an AI-commerce watch item: seek evidence in retailer disclosures or traffic data that AI referrals are changing acquisition costs, conversion, or direct-site traffic before positioning for winners or losers.
• If physical traffic holds up while online price competition intensifies, reassess relative exposure to experience-led retail versus price-led discretionary retail; this survey alone is insufficient to establish that pair trade.