Nvidia to crash to $135 on this date, according to expert

A TradingShot technical analysis projects Nvidia could decline from $228 to roughly $135 by early January 2027, with $175 at its 100-week moving average identified as the first major support level. The bearish view cites a narrowing trading range, lower monthly RSI highs and bearish momentum divergence, despite Nvidia reporting fiscal Q2 2027 revenue growth of 106% year over year to $96.2B and guiding for approximately $108B in Q3 revenue. Data-center revenue rose 117% to $89B, supported by sustained AI-infrastructure demand and the Vera Rubin platform production ramp.

Analysis

The technical case alone is not a fundamental short signal: a multi-year moving-average analog has low causal value when NVDA’s earnings base, product cycle and customer concentration have changed materially. The more relevant mechanism is valuation sensitivity: any evidence that hyperscaler AI capex is shifting from accelerated deployment to digestion would compress NVDA’s forward multiple before it materially affects reported revenue. A break below $175 would likely turn systematic positioning and dealer hedging into incremental sellers; until then, the setup is better viewed as elevated left-tail risk than a directional catalyst.

The second-order exposure is uneven across the AI stack. NVDA-specific demand moderation would be more damaging to high-beta, AI-pure-play suppliers such as VRT and SMCI than to diversified semiconductor beneficiaries AVGO and TSM, while AMD could outperform on relative expectations if customers use a pause in Nvidia purchases to qualify alternatives. Conversely, continued supply tightness and successful product transitions would make the technical bearish framing costly, because the stock’s premium is supported by visibility rather than merely momentum.

Over the next 1-3 months, the decisive data are hyperscaler capex commentary, lead-time and supply-allocation signals, and whether gross-margin guidance absorbs new-platform ramp costs. Over 6-18 months, the principal bear case is not a chart pattern but AI infrastructure ROI failing to generate enough downstream monetization, triggering customer procurement rationalization. This thesis is falsified by upward revisions to calendar-2027 revenue expectations, stable gross margin through the transition, and NVDA holding $175 during a broader semiconductor drawdown.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not initiate an outright NVDA short solely on the technical forecast. Set a downside-trigger alert at $175; a sustained weekly close below that level combined with a cut to hyperscaler capex guidance would justify a 1-3 month tactical short or put-spread position targeting the $150-$155 area, with risk capped on a recovery above $190.
• For existing oversized NVDA longs, buy 6-9 month put spreads with strikes around $175/$140 rather than selling core exposure into an unverified technical signal. This protects the plausible systematic-flow air pocket while retaining upside from earnings revisions; reassess after the next earnings/guidance cycle.
• Express relative AI-risk reduction via long AVGO / short SMCI or VRT over 3-6 months, sized market-neutral. The trade benefits if spending shifts toward diversified custom silicon/connectivity and penalizes the most operationally leveraged AI-infrastructure names; stop out if SMCI or VRT deliver material upward revenue and margin revisions.
• Monitor AMD relative performance versus NVDA around customer product-qualification announcements. A sustained AMD/NVDA ratio breakout alongside evidence of non-Nvidia accelerator deployments would be an early warning that competitive substitution—not technicals—is becoming the relevant NVDA multiple risk.