SpaceX’s plans to buy more Nvidia GPUs is keeping Jim Cramer bullish on the chip stock

SpaceX is seeking to raise $40 billion to buy more Nvidia chips, with Apollo and other banks in early financing talks; the FT reported a possible structure of $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt, with no closing timeline reported. Jim Cramer argued that SpaceX’s plan to rent AI compute supports the case that Nvidia-chip investments can generate returns; Wall Street projects SpaceX AI revenue of $6.22 billion for the September quarter and $11.27 billion for December. On Wednesday, SpaceX fell roughly 2.5% and Nvidia less than 1% in a weak tech market, while Nvidia’s expanded buyback program and SpaceX’s recent share rebound were also noted.

Analysis

The key distinction is between chip demand and durable end-customer returns. Debt-funded capacity can support near-term NVDA orders while making the AI payback narrative more fragile: if compute rentals underutilize, financing costs and hardware depreciation sit with SpaceX even as Nvidia has already booked the sale. The proposed financing is not yet closed, so treat it as an order-support signal, not committed incremental revenue. SpaceX’s exposure is also more concentrated than that of diversified cloud providers; weaker utilization or falling rental prices could pressure its equity and future borrowing capacity. Over the next 1–3 months, the informative catalysts are financing terms and evidence of contracted, collected compute revenue—not headline capacity or management’s ROI claims. Over 6–18 months, utilization, rental pricing, and chip-refresh economics will determine whether this is a self-funding business or a leveraged capex cycle. The contrarian risk is that the market is treating financed purchases as proof of end-user economics. Nvidia’s buyback authorization may cushion positioning, but it cannot validate returns on customer infrastructure. Apollo’s early-stage involvement is not yet a material earnings signal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing NVDA solely on this report. Reassess after financing closes and SpaceX provides verifiable utilization, pricing, and cash-collection evidence; an announced purchase is not equivalent to profitable end demand.
• Relative-value watch: if the financing closes on sizable debt terms without clear contracted utilization, consider a modest long NVDA / short SPCX pair. The thesis is lower exposure to one buyer’s leverage and execution risk while retaining exposure to chip demand; keep risk limited because both remain exposed to an AI-capex reversal.
• For NVDA, the near-term thesis is weakened by customer capex deferrals, order pushouts, or evidence that rental pricing/utilization is falling. For SPCX, reassess if financing is materially smaller or more expensive than proposed, or if compute revenue fails to convert into cash.
• Do not infer a direct trade in APO from early financing discussions; revisit only if Apollo confirms a role and its expected economics are disclosed.