Stock futures rise slightly as investors eye AI trade, brace for more data and earnings: Live updates

U.S. stock futures were modestly higher Sunday evening: Dow futures added 0.2%, S&P 500 futures 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.3%, following Friday’s partial tech rebound after an AI-driven selloff. Investors face CPI and PPI releases, major AI-related earnings and uncertainty over AI infrastructure regulation; Nvidia’s board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with a businesswoman U.S. intelligence agencies say is a Chinese spy. Retail traders recorded their biggest day of selling since the Covid pandemic on Thursday, according to Vanda Research, while strategist Liz Ann Sonders said the market may not be fully washed out.

Analysis

The setup is a two-sided positioning trade, not a clean “buy the dip”: oversold tech and heavy retail selling create squeeze potential, while absent retail dip-buying leaves the rebound dependent on institutional flows. The next 1–3 months hinge less on headline AI demand than on whether reported capex converts into customer returns and sustainable margins. CoreWeave’s, Cisco’s, and Applied Materials’ commentary can help distinguish durable infrastructure orders from spending concentration or timing shifts; read Constellation Energy’s outlook as a check on power availability and cost pressure, not as a direct proxy for AI utilization.

Near term, CPI/PPI and the stronger labor backdrop can reprice real rates and compress long-duration tech multiples even if earnings hold. NVIDIA’s reported board investigation adds a separate, unverified governance and geopolitical-risk discount; escalation could affect confidence among customers, employees, or regulators, but the article provides no evidence of an operational or financial impact. Over 6–18 months, tighter data-center permitting or energy constraints could redirect spending toward power and networking while delaying GPU and facility deployments. The contrarian risk is that positioning is already sufficiently washed out to fuel a sharp rebound; the counterpoint is that technical oversold conditions do not establish a capex or margin floor.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid adding broad AI beta solely on the oversold signal. Let this week’s earnings and capex commentary establish whether the selloff is resetting expectations or exposing weaker returns; a rebound without improved margin or spending evidence is vulnerable.
• For portfolios with concentrated semiconductor exposure, consider a modest, defined-risk QQQ put spread as a 1–3 week event hedge into inflation data and AI-related earnings, sized so a relief rally has limited cost. Reassess after the releases; do not treat this as a bearish structural position.
• Treat NVIDIA’s investigation as an event-risk watch, not a short thesis on the allegation alone. Verify the board’s findings and any customer, regulatory, or guidance consequences before increasing exposure; a credible, contained resolution would weaken the governance-discount case.
• Falsifiers: inflation data that ease rate pressure alongside stable or rising capex and margin guidance would favor renewed tech risk-taking. Conversely, broad capex deferrals, margin deterioration, or escalation of NVIDIA-related governance or regulatory issues would argue against buying the rebound.