Cramer sees opportunity amid tech turmoil and predicts a holiday win for FedEx

Thursday’s tech selloff followed Alphabet’s revenue miss and a second consecutive quarter of Search results below estimates, while Microsoft reported a strong quarter with accelerating Azure growth. Eli Lilly shares reached an all-time high after a strong beat-and-raise quarter, supported by demand for its obesity and diabetes treatments; the company said it captured seven of every 10 new Medicare GLP-1 Bridge participants. FedEx beat quarterly expectations and raised its full-year earnings outlook, but a softer fourth-quarter forecast and higher costs tempered gains.

Analysis

The tech selloff creates a relative-quality setup, not a blanket dip-buy: Alphabet’s repeated Search miss raises the risk that AI changes query economics before new monetization offsets it, while stronger Cloud growth may not resolve that issue. Microsoft’s Azure acceleration supports relative resilience, but a broad risk-off tape can still compress its multiple; Cramer’s “financial discipline” is a judgment, not proof that AI returns will cover investment. Amazon’s post-close results are the near-term read-through: cloud growth and AI spending could validate or undermine the MSFT/GOOG divergence. Intel adds a separate semiconductor catalyst and should not be treated as a proxy for cloud demand.

LLY’s demand and enrollment momentum improve the growth case, but the less visible variable is persistence: better tolerability matters only if it reduces discontinuation and improves duration-adjusted economics. Medicare Bridge participation is not yet evidence of durable paid uptake. At the new high, any disappointment in access, retention, or supply could reset expectations quickly.

For FDX, the market appears to be discounting a distant margin-recovery narrative while near-term cost pressure and a softer quarter constrain confidence. The 2027 target is too far out to underwrite without measurable progress. FDXF’s results may clarify its standalone economics; do not extrapolate them to consolidated FDX. The claim that FedEx will outperform UPS over the holiday season is a forecast, not an established competitive shift.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a small, staged MSFT-over-GOOG relative-value position after Amazon’s report, rather than buying the whole tech complex. Reassess if Azure growth or cloud monetization weakens, or if Alphabet shows Search stabilization; avoid adding solely on a market-wide downdraft.
• For the next 1–3 months, use Amazon’s cloud growth, AI capex commentary, and Alphabet Search trends as the key catalysts for the tech pair. A broad risk-off move can widen losses on both legs; size for that and avoid assuming Microsoft is immune to multiple compression.
• Do not chase LLY after the sharp repricing. Track prescriptions, access, supply, and—most importantly—patient persistence/tolerability evidence over coming quarters. Failure to show improved continuation or any access setback would falsify the durability thesis.
• Keep FDX versus UPS as a watch item through holiday-season updates, not a directional trade based on the CEO’s 2027 confidence or Cramer’s forecast. Look for sequential domestic margin improvement and execution against cost pressures; worsening guidance or weak seasonal volumes would argue against the recovery case.