Prediction: SpaceX Stock Won't Get Full Credit for Starship Until It Can Reuse the Whole Rocket

Starship reached orbit on its Sept. 28 test flight and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, but both rocket stages ended in the ocean, leaving full reusability unproven. SpaceX says Starship aims to cut launch costs tenfold versus Falcon 9; the article argues reuse is key to Starlink’s capacity expansion and economics. Connectivity depreciation and amortization rose 41% year over year to $805 million in Q2 2026, while operating income increased 79% to $1.7 billion. At about $168 per share and more than 70 times annualized Q2 sales, the valuation is described as already assuming a cost advantage the company has yet to demonstrate.

Analysis

The key economic question is not whether Starship can reach orbit, but whether it can make Starlink’s marginal capacity cheaper on a repeatable basis. Reuse could lower the capitalized cost of each satellite deployment and, over time, reduce depreciation per unit of network capacity. But faster deployment can also increase total constellation investment and depreciation; the benefit is strongest only if added capacity supports usage and revenue, not merely subscriber growth at lower ARPU. Watch capacity utilization, ARPU, and connectivity-segment profit alongside launch cadence.

Near term, a ship catch and reflight are binary credibility tests, not proof of the promised cost curve. A successful reflight would improve the probability of Starlink capacity expansion and pressure competing launch providers over the longer term, but one demonstration would not establish reliable turnaround, fleet availability, or economics. The 1–3 month risk is schedule slippage or another vehicle loss; over 6–18 months, cadence and cost per delivered satellite matter more than milestone headlines. The valuation described in the article leaves little room for execution delays, although a negative reaction to this test may already reflect some skepticism. The contrarian risk is treating reusability as the only value driver: improved network capacity could still support growth, but declining ARPU makes monetization the limiting variable.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing SPCX on an orbit milestone alone. Reassess after a ship catch and, more importantly, a completed reflight; require evidence of repeatable turnaround before underwriting the launch-cost thesis.
• For a defined-risk bearish expression, consider a put spread on SPCX only if options are liquid and pricing does not already fully reflect a delayed test. Time expiry beyond the anticipated catch/reflight window; maximum loss is the premium, while the catalyst is slippage, failure, or weak follow-through. Verify spreads and implied volatility first.
• Track quarterly connectivity-segment depreciation against operating income, plus ARPU and evidence of capacity utilization. Rising depreciation without sustained profit growth would challenge the claim that cheaper launches translate into attractive network economics.
• Falsifiers: a successful ship catch followed by reflight and a credible recurring cadence would weaken the delay thesis; conversely, another schedule slip, vehicle loss, or deteriorating connectivity profitability would strengthen it. No reliable cost-per-launch or ship-turnaround data are provided, so treat those as required diligence before sizing a structural position.