Bending Spoons wants to revive software castoffs. Berkshire is backing the plan

Berkshire Hathaway has invested more than $900 million in Bending Spoons, including a newly disclosed $330 million stake; the announcement sent the stock up 41% before some gains faded, leaving a market capitalization of about $30 billion. The Milan-based acquirer reported revenue above $700 million, more than double year over year, and net income of $177 million, up 171%, with growth driven almost entirely by acquisitions. Its strategy includes buying software companies at steep discounts—Airtable for about $1.3 billion and Miro for $1.36 billion—while making substantial operational changes, including Airtable staff departures. The article also highlights uncertainty over whether the model can sustain customer demand and profits as AI pressures SaaS businesses.

Analysis

The key underwriting question is whether Bending Spoons can convert acquisition discounts into durable cash flow, not whether it can report acquisition-led growth. If returns depend mainly on repeated purchases, the model is exposed to a financing and deal-supply cycle: competition returning or targets becoming less distressed would weaken future growth, while integration and customer losses could surface after cost cuts have already lifted reported earnings. Verify organic revenue, retention, cash conversion, and debt/capital needs before treating scale as compounding.

AI is not an equal threat to all SaaS. Features that can be replicated by agents face pricing pressure; products embedded in workflows and holding customer data may retain switching costs. But aggressive repricing and reduced support can erode those advantages and make Microsoft’s bundled alternatives more attractive. That creates a second-order risk for Bending Spoons: extracting more from acquired customers may improve near-term economics while shrinking the asset’s long-run franchise value.

Berkshire Hathaway’s investment may support confidence and liquidity in the near term, but it does not validate acquisition returns or establish a floor for BSP. Over 1–3 months, focus on deal financing, closing/integration updates, and the next results; over 6–18 months, organic growth and retention matter more than acquisition-driven revenue. The contrarian opportunity is that “AI makes all SaaS obsolete” is too broad; the risk is that investors mistake operational cost extraction for product resilience. The thesis weakens if acquired-company retention and organic growth hold up; it strengthens if guidance, cash conversion, or customer metrics deteriorate.

Key Decisions for Investors

• BSP: Do not chase the deal-driven rally on Berkshire’s signal alone. Keep on watch pending disclosure of leverage, acquisition-adjusted cash conversion, and organic growth; consider a tactical short only if the premium persists while those measures weaken. Falsifier: stable retention and improving organic cash generation.
• MSFT: A relative long versus feature-exposed SaaS is a plausible 6–18 month expression if customers migrate from repriced or under-supported apps to bundled tools. Size cautiously: switching costs can protect incumbents, and the article does not establish actual migration. Reassess on evidence of customer churn or product displacement.
• ADBE, HUBS, INTU: Avoid treating the whole group as an undifferentiated AI short. Prefer company-specific exposure analysis; use earnings guidance and customer retention as triggers. A durable deterioration in growth or pricing would support underweighting, while stable usage and monetization would challenge the displacement thesis.
• BRK.A: No incremental trade from this disclosure alone. Its investment is a confidence signal, not independent evidence that BSP’s acquisition economics or valuation are attractive.