The Nasdaq-100's 6 Best Stocks This Year, and Whether They Can Keep Going

Through Oct. 14, 2026, Moderna led Nasdaq-100 performers, gaining 667% since the end of 2025, followed by Sandisk (+more than 490%), Micron (+220%), Marvell and AMD (both +188%), and Intel (+166%). Drivers included Moderna’s encouraging phase 3 melanoma-trial results and AI-related demand for memory chips, data-center processors and other hardware; the article also cites strong revenue growth at Marvell, AMD and Intel. It cautions that sharp gains may already price in future growth, while analyst targets and forecasts remain optimistic for some chipmakers.

Analysis

The useful signal is not the leaderboard; it is the widening gap between AI demand and durable earnings capture. Custom silicon (MRVL) can take workload share from merchant GPUs without shrinking total compute demand, but that makes NVDA’s long-run mix and pricing power—not AI spending alone—the relevant risk. AMD needs repeatable deployments and software adoption to convert data-center growth into sustained share gains. Intel’s reported acceleration is a low-proof, high-expectations setup: one quarter of segment growth does not establish competitive positioning.

Memory is a separate, more cyclical exposure. Treat SNDK and MU as distinct products and earnings drivers; DRAM tightness does not automatically validate NAND economics. Elevated prices can also induce customer substitution, demand deferral, and capacity investment, creating a 6–18 month supply-response risk even if near-term allocations remain tight. The article’s MU revenue trajectory and analyst target figures require reconciliation with filings and current estimates before use; do not underwrite a trade to them.

MRNA is a clinical/regulatory event trade, not a momentum compounder: trial durability, safety, and FDA review can reset expected value abruptly. After a sharp repricing, the contrarian risk is that investors extrapolate a successful readout into approval and commercial uptake. In the next 1–3 months, favor confirmation in orders, margins, and guidance over price action; over 6–18 months, watch capacity additions and AI capex returns. No broad AI chase is warranted on this evidence alone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid adding to SNDK or MU solely on broad memory-shortage claims. First verify product-level pricing, customer mix, inventory, and capex plans; reassess if pricing rolls over or supply commitments loosen.
• Watch a relative-value long MRVL / short INTC only after checking current valuation, bookings, and segment margins. The thesis is custom-silicon execution versus less-proven AI positioning, not simply different YTD returns; exit if MRVL growth or customer conversion weakens, or Intel demonstrates sustained competitive wins.
• Do not chase MRNA ahead of clinical or regulatory confirmation. Treat trial follow-up and FDA milestones as binary catalysts; a safety, durability, or review setback would falsify the bullish repricing case.
• For AMD and NVDA, wait for evidence in earnings calls and filings that deployments, software adoption, and customer economics support share gains. A slowdown in hyperscaler capex or weaker forward guidance would challenge the AI-growth thesis across the group.