These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks identifies Starbucks and Ulta Beauty as potential earnings-surprise candidates, with positive Earnings ESPs of 2.43% and 2.37%, respectively, and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) ratings. Their Most Accurate EPS estimates are $0.74 for Starbucks, versus $0.72 consensus ahead of its November 4, 2026 report, and $5.73 for Ulta, versus $5.60 consensus ahead of its December 3, 2026 report. Zacks says a backtest pairing a #3-or-better rank with positive ESP produced positive surprises 70% of the time and averaged 28.3% annual returns over 10 years; these are historical results, not a guarantee of future performance.

Analysis

The signal here is a small upward estimate gap—not evidence that either business is accelerating. A positive earnings surprise can still disappoint investors if forward guidance, comparable sales, or margins miss expectations; conversely, a beat already anticipated by the stock may have little payoff. The article’s historical hit rate and return figures are vendor backtests, not a standalone estimate of risk-adjusted, investable returns; methodology, costs, and sample construction are not provided.

SBUX is the nearer event. Its key read-through is whether traffic and operating execution support the estimate, rather than EPS alone; labor and coffee-cost pressure could absorb sales upside. For ULTA, holiday-period demand and promotional intensity matter, with discounting potentially lifting sales while diluting margins. Sephora and mass-market beauty channels are competitive checks, but the article supplies no evidence of share shifts.

Near term, the modest ESPs are too weak to establish an attractive event trade without current share prices, options-implied moves, estimate-revision breadth, and operating data. Over 1–3 months, revisions and guidance are more useful confirmation than the initial screen. A 6–18 month thesis would require evidence of durable traffic, market-share, and margin trends, which this article does not provide. Treat both signals as watch items, not buy recommendations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No position on the ESP figures alone. Before the SBUX report, verify whether revisions are broad-based and check current valuation, options-implied move, and implied volatility; the article provides none of these.
• For SBUX, monitor comparable-sales/traffic commentary and margin guidance alongside EPS. A beat without operating confirmation, or a weaker forward outlook, would invalidate the positive-screen signal.
• For ULTA, track holiday demand indicators and promotional intensity. Strong sales accompanied by margin deterioration would weaken the earnings-quality thesis; do not extrapolate the small estimate gap into a durable growth view.
• Reassess after each report rather than pre-committing to a direction. Consider a defined-risk event structure only if independent operating evidence confirms the revisions and the option market does not already price an outsized move.