Rightmove raises 2026 EPS growth forecast to "at least 7%"

Rightmove raised its 2026 underlying EPS growth forecast to at least 7% from at least 5%, while keeping revenue growth guidance at 6%-7% and operating profit growth at at least 3%. UK property activity weakened: buyer demand fell 10% and sales agreed fell 9% year on year in the four months to October 31, while the average five-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.5% from 5.0% on June 30. For 2027, Rightmove expects at least 10% EPS growth and plans to return more than £400 million to shareholders between July 2026 and July 2027.

Analysis

The upgrade is more about per-share arithmetic and capital returns than a better housing-market signal. With operating-profit growth still modest and New Homes ARPA expectations trimmed, buybacks may help EPS outpace operating profit; verify the share-count contribution before treating the higher EPS outlook as evidence of stronger underlying demand. That distinction matters for the multiple: a high-margin portal can defend earnings through a weak transaction cycle, but prolonged pressure on advertiser budgets would eventually test pricing power.

Near term, the buyback and EPS headline could support RMV, while falling buyer activity and higher mortgage costs constrain confidence in a demand recovery. Over 1–3 months, mortgage-rate direction and the next evidence on Estate Agency ARPA are the key catalysts. Over 6–18 months, persistent weakness in development activity could weigh on New Homes monetization; competing portals such as Zoopla may also compete harder for constrained advertiser spend, though the article provides no evidence of share gains or pricing pressure there.

Contrarian read: investors may over-credit the EPS upgrade and shareholder returns while underweighting the weaker operating indicators. Conversely, the business’s subscription-like advertiser revenue and margin profile could prove more resilient than transaction volumes. Without RMV’s current price, valuation, chart levels, and buyback-adjusted share-count outlook, there is no defensible numeric entry or stop.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase the guidance headline alone. Before adding RMV, check the share-price reaction against the operating outlook and quantify how much forecast EPS growth comes from buybacks rather than operating profit.
• Watch mortgage-rate moves and the next update on Estate Agency ARPA, buyer activity, and sales agreed over the next 1–3 months. A stabilization in those indicators would strengthen the case that the earnings outlook is durable.
• Treat New Homes as the key downside monitor over 6–18 months: further declines in developments or weaker developer ARPA would challenge the assumption that the platform can maintain monetization through a housing downturn.
• No numeric entry or stop is supportable from the supplied information. Reassess after checking current RMV price/valuation, technical levels, and the projected share-count reduction; a deterioration in ARPA or operating-profit guidance would invalidate the constructive view.