These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks identifies Walmart and O'Reilly Automotive as potential earnings-beat candidates ahead of their 2026 reports: Walmart's Earnings ESP is +1.44% ($0.65 Most Accurate Estimate vs. $0.64 consensus), while O'Reilly's is +2.11% ($0.95 vs. $0.93). Both carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold); the article cites a historical 70% positive-surprise rate and 28.3% average annual returns over a 10-year backtest for stocks with a #3-or-better rank and positive ESP. These are screening signals, not reported earnings results or guarantees of a beat.

Analysis

The positive ESP readings are a weak, short-horizon estimate-revision signal—not evidence of improving underlying demand or a durable earnings inflection. The cited backtest is promotional and its methodology, costs, and out-of-sample performance are not established here; a historical beat rate also says little about whether a beat is already priced in.

For O’Reilly, the nearer report creates a concentrated event risk. A modest EPS beat could still disappoint if comparable sales, DIY/professional demand, or gross-margin commentary is soft; AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts are the relevant read-throughs, but not automatic beneficiaries or losers. For Walmart, the longer runway leaves more time for estimate revisions and consumer-spending data to change the setup. A headline beat without evidence of traffic, mix, and operating-margin resilience may not support the multiple. Supplier terms and competitive price investment are second-order margin risks, not addressed by the EPS estimates.

Near term, expectations and positioning may dominate the small positive revisions. Over 1–3 months, the key catalysts are reported comparable sales, margin guidance, and revisions after the calls; over 6–18 months, consumer resilience and retailers’ ability to protect margins matter more than this one-quarter signal. The thesis weakens if revisions turn negative or either company reports a beat accompanied by weaker forward guidance. No valuation, share-price move, or options-implied move is provided, so relative value and event premium cannot be assessed.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not buy either stock solely on the ESP statistic. Before taking event risk, check recent share performance, estimate-revision breadth, valuation, and options-implied move against historical post-earnings moves.
• Treat ORLY as the nearer watch item into its October 28 report: consider a position only if sales and margin expectations remain stable and the entry price does not already discount a beat. Reassess on comparable sales and forward commentary.
• Keep WMT on a later catalyst watchlist for its November 19 report; track consumer-spending data and estimate revisions in the interim. A beat without resilient traffic and operating-margin guidance would not validate a bullish position.
• Falsification / alert: downgrade the positive read-through if consensus estimates reverse lower, reported sales or margins miss, or management guides below expectations. Avoid a WMT–ORLY pair trade until relative valuation, performance, and earnings sensitivities are verified.