Cramer: Investors selling Apple on latest iPhone 18 report are 'stupid as plywood'

Apple shares fell roughly 2% after Nikkei Asia reported October production orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were cut 15% from original plans amid weaker demand; the report cited people familiar with the situation. Jim Cramer questioned the report's accuracy and urged investors to buy a small position, citing potential from Apple's foldable iPhone Duo, priced from $1,999 and scheduled to open for preorder Oct. 16, and forthcoming smart-home products. The article gives no independent confirmation of the order cuts.

Analysis

The 15% order reduction is a potentially useful leading indicator, but not yet proof of a demand break: it is a single-source report about planned component orders, which can reflect mix, timing, or inventory control as well as weaker sell-through. The key market mechanism is whether it forces lower iPhone revenue expectations or merely reduces channel and supplier inventory risk. Cramer’s confidence is not independent confirmation; his disclosed long position makes the product-launch thesis worth separating from the sourcing report.

The foldable could support higher realized selling prices and refresh interest, but a $1,999 entry point also narrows the addressable market. Watch for substitution from other premium iPhones rather than assuming wholly incremental demand. Samsung and Google could benefit if Apple’s first foldable is delayed, supply-constrained, or poorly received. Smart-home announcements are a lower-confidence catalyst until there is evidence of adoption or meaningful ecosystem engagement.

Near term, launch headlines may dominate price action. Over 1–3 months, preorder availability, delivery lead times, and reported channel inventory should test demand; broad availability would be less persuasive than sustained delivery extensions. Over 6–18 months, the question is whether foldables create incremental upgrades and ecosystem use without undermining the core iPhone franchise. Verify independent sell-through, supplier-order revisions, and Apple guidance before treating either the cut or the launch narrative as decisive. The thesis weakens materially if Apple signals lower iPhone demand or launch availability is ample without evidence of strong uptake.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase AAPL solely on Cramer’s recommendation or the one-day decline. If adding exposure, scale in only after checking preorder lead times and independent channel data; keep the initial risk small while the order-cut report remains unverified.
• Treat the Oct. 13 home event as a headline catalyst, not an earnings catalyst absent concrete pricing, availability, and adoption evidence. Reassess after the Oct. 16 preorder window and subsequent delivery-time updates.
• Set a downside review trigger at any company guidance that implies weaker iPhone demand, or corroborated supplier and channel evidence of order cuts; that would invalidate the view that the report is only timing or mix and argue against adding.
• If preorder demand is weak or delivery availability remains broad while launch supply is adequate, reduce the foldable-driven upside thesis. Strong, persistent delivery delays would support it, but confirm they reflect demand rather than constrained supply before increasing exposure.