Raising rates doesn't produce barrels. Why a Fed hike raises recession risk.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% for the first time in nearly three years, climbing more than 100bps since February as war-driven oil-price gains intensified inflation and rate concerns. Markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday, reinforcing a hawkish outlook for borrowing costs and risk assets.