Americans warming up to EVs as charging infrastructure confidence grows, HERE-SBD EV Index 2026 finds

US EV market share fell to 5.37% year-to-date in 2026, nearly 3% below the 2025 full-year level, but 53% of surveyed drivers say they are more open to considering an EV than a year ago. Public charging points increased by 31,600, representing 13% of the national total, while total charging power rose 47% to 20.7 GW; favorable perceptions of public charging availability climbed to 47% from 28%. Current owners report strong satisfaction, with 77% likely to replace their EV with another EV, suggesting charging-network improvements could support future demand despite the current adoption slowdown.

Analysis

The investable implication is not a near-term unit-sales inflection; it is a gradual reduction in the non-price friction that has constrained EV consideration. That favors OEMs with scale, charging access, and lower-cost platforms—most clearly TSLA—while leaving subscale manufacturers exposed because improving infrastructure does not solve their funding needs, weak residual values, or negative gross margins. HERE is privately held, so its survey is better treated as a demand-leading indicator for public mobility-data and charging proxies than as a direct equity catalyst.

Charging buildout can be economically mixed for network operators. More installed capacity improves EV conversion, but utilization must rise faster than the charger base to support returns on capital; low-utilization networks may face depreciation, maintenance, and power-demand-charge pressure before revenue catches up. EVGO is comparatively better positioned where fast-charging throughput improves, whereas CHPT remains more exposed to hardware sales, host-site budgets, and a slower path to recurring software/service profitability.

Over the next 1-3 months, monthly US EV registrations, incentive changes, financing rates, and OEM delivery commentary matter more than stated purchase intent. Over 6-18 months, a sustained improvement in used-EV affordability and charging reliability could narrow the adoption gap, pressuring ICE-heavy OEM residual assumptions and supporting battery, power-electronics, and charging software demand. The contrarian view is that survey optimism is already high relative to actual purchase conversion; absent lower transaction prices and compelling lease payments, sentiment may simply lengthen the shopping funnel rather than lift sales.

A durable bull case requires EV mix stabilization without renewed OEM price cuts. It is falsified if quarterly EV registrations continue declining despite easier comparisons, or if TSLA must cut prices enough to drive automotive gross margin materially below consensus; for charging equities, utilization and gross-margin progress—not connector counts—are the required confirmation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a 3-6 month long TSLA / short RIVN pair, sized market-neutral: TSLA has superior charging access, manufacturing scale, and balance-sheet endurance if consideration converts slowly; RIVN remains more dependent on capital markets and high-volume execution. Exit if TSLA automotive gross margin ex-credits misses consensus by more than 300bp or RIVN demonstrates sustained positive gross margin ahead of expectations.
• Do not chase CHPT on infrastructure headlines. Set a watch trigger for evidence of sequential subscription/service gross-margin expansion and improving operating cash flow; without those metrics, incremental deployments can increase capital intensity rather than equity value.
• Use EVGO only as a selective 6-12 month long after quarterly utilization and charging-margin data confirm that throughput is rising faster than network expansion. The upside is operating leverage from higher fast-charge utilization; the downside is demand charges, financing costs, and continued negative free cash flow.
• Monitor US monthly EV registrations and OEM incentive/lease pricing over the next two reporting cycles. A registration rebound without materially deeper incentives would justify adding EV exposure; a rebound driven solely by discounting favors avoiding OEMs with weak margins and reinforces the TSLA/RIVN relative-value trade.