Goldman adds three new names to its favorite stocks list — including a standout 77% upside call

Goldman Sachs’ September “Conviction List – Directors’ Cut” adds Adyen (77% upside), RWE (75 euro target implying 28% upside), and Talanx (141 euro target implying 13% upside), citing growth catalysts like agentic AI-powered commerce for Adyen and grid/data-center and capacity-payment tailwinds for RWE. Goldman also highlights Talanx’s resilience reserves (6B euros) and stronger Retail International growth (8–10% GWP growth from 2026–2030) despite softening pricing in parts of reinsurance. The bank removed Enel, Wise Group, Hannover Re and Zalando, which is supportive for the newly added names but not a broad market catalyst.

Analysis

This is mostly a factor-flow event, not fresh fundamental information. Additions to a conviction list tend to attract incremental long-only and momentum demand for a few sessions, but the real move comes only if the next earnings print confirms the new multiple. The common thread here is a rotation toward names with more visible cash flow durability or lower perceived WACC, which is usually more powerful in Europe than a simple growth-screen upgrade.

ADYEY is the highest-beta expression: the market will only sustain a premium if merchant wins convert into durable net revenue growth and higher attach rates, because the AI-commerce angle is still narrative until it shows up in transaction volume. SHOP and TOST are second-order beneficiaries through distribution and validation, but the economics accrue mainly to the processor, so Adyen should outperform them if the story is real. RWE is a different trade: the rerating depends on regulated/grid earnings and capacity-market policy hardening; if those lag, the stock reverts to utility-like multiple compression despite the data-center optionality.

TLLXY looks like the cleanest risk/reward because the upside is driven by mix shift, reserve strength and capital-return optionality rather than heroic growth assumptions. The contrarian miss is that analysts may be late to the quality-insurance rotation: if reinsurance pricing softens further, capital should keep rotating into primary insurers with underappreciated growth engines. Near term, these names can drift higher on flow, but over 6-18 months the thesis breaks if earnings revisions do not follow the rating upgrades or if European power/credit conditions deteriorate.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RWEOY on a 1-3 month horizon; add on pullbacks and look for a 15-20% rerating if grid/capacity-market headlines improve. Falsify the trade if German policy slips or the European power forward curve rolls over materially.
• Buy ADYEY only on weakness over the next 2-4 weeks; treat it as a quality-growth compounder, not a pure AI option. Risk/reward improves if the next quarterly update shows accelerating net revenue growth and merchant attach, and deteriorates quickly if that cadence stalls.
• Initiate a smaller long TLLXY position for a 6-18 month horizon as a lower-beta insurance compounder. Cut the position if combined ratio trends worsen or Retail International premium growth misses the high-single-digit range.
• Avoid chasing ZLNDY on strength for the next month; removal from the list is a negative catalyst until growth reaccelerates. If it rallies without accompanying guidance improvement, that is a fade rather than a buy.