Gas Turbine Market to Grow from USD 17.80 Billion in 2025 to USD 30.10 Billion by 2035 – Research by SNS Insider

SNS Insider forecasts the global gas turbine market will grow from $17.8 billion in 2025 to $30.1 billion by 2035, a 5.4% CAGR, driven by coal-to-gas replacement, AI data-center electricity demand, and hydrogen/ammonia-capable turbine adoption. Data centers are projected to be the fastest-growing end market at an 11.2% CAGR, while Asia-Pacific is expected to lead regional growth at 8.3%. North America held a 29.5% market share in 2025, and major suppliers are expanding capacity and deploying hydrogen-ready equipment.

Analysis

The investable signal is not the headline market-growth estimate but the collision between data-center commissioning schedules and multi-year grid interconnection delays. GEV and ENR are positioned to monetize this through equipment plus long-duration service agreements, where installed-base utilization and aftermarket pricing matter more to earnings than incremental turbine shipments. For GEV, a tighter large-frame turbine delivery queue can convert demand visibility into mix-driven margin upside over the next 12-24 months; investors should focus on bookings, slot pricing, service attach rates, and working-capital conversion rather than broad market CAGR claims.

The second-order beneficiary is BKR: behind-the-meter and distributed-power deployments require gas compression, fuel handling, controls and lifecycle services, creating a less headline-sensitive route to the same power-shortage theme. RR. and WRT1V have stronger exposure to smaller-scale, fast-deployment generation, but their upside depends on whether data-center operators choose modular on-site power rather than waiting for utility-scale combined-cycle projects. That choice is increasingly determined by time-to-power, local gas availability and emissions permitting—not merely turbine efficiency.

Consensus may be underestimating supply discipline: incremental manufacturing capacity takes years to qualify, while power demand can materialize quickly. Conversely, the hydrogen-ready premium should not be capitalized as near-term revenue: fuel supply, transport and project economics remain the gating constraints. A recession-led reduction in hyperscaler capex, a sharp decline in gas-fired generation economics, or faster-than-expected grid/transmission build-out would weaken the scarcity thesis within 1-3 quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain/add long GEV on pullbacks, with a 12-18 month horizon. The preferred catalyst is quarterly evidence of large-frame turbine backlog conversion and service-margin expansion; target a 15-25% total-return opportunity versus roughly 10% downside if orders flatten or management guides to capacity-driven margin dilution.
• Use a pair trade: long GEV / short a broad industrial proxy such as XLI over 6-12 months. This isolates power-equipment scarcity and recurring-service economics from generalized capex cyclicality; exit if GEV backlog growth decelerates materially for two consecutive quarters or XLI earnings revisions turn decisively positive.
• Place BKR on an order-watch rather than establish a full position solely on this release. Upgrade to long only if power-related equipment/services bookings become separately measurable or management identifies data-center/distributed-generation demand as a revenue driver; otherwise the linkage is too indirect relative to BKR's core energy-cycle exposure.
• For higher-risk satellite exposure, consider RR. only after confirmation that its power-systems order intake and margin outlook are improving. A 6-18 month long is attractive if modular data-center generation converts into contracted orders, but size small because program execution, aerospace-cycle valuation and emissions-permitting risk can dominate the thesis.
• Avoid treating hydrogen-ready capabilities as a standalone valuation catalyst for ENR or GEV over the next 12 months. Reassess only upon firm customer orders with funded hydrogen supply and offtake; absent those conditions, the relevant near-term trade remains gas-power capacity and service scarcity.