History Says This Is the 1 Portfolio Move Every Investor Should Make Before the Next Bear Market

The article recommends broad diversification through Vanguard’s total-market ETF, which tracks about 3,500 U.S. stocks across 11 sectors, as preparation for an eventual bear market. It cites average bear-market declines of 38% over about 15 months and JPMorgan Chase data showing that seven of the market’s 10 best days from March 2005 to March 2025 occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days, warning that exiting the market could mean missing the rebound.

Analysis

This is portfolio-allocation commentary, not a company catalyst: it provides no new evidence on earnings, valuation, or positioning for NVIDIA (NVDA) or Crocs (CROX). The useful distinction is between diversification and downside protection. A broad U.S. market ETF can reduce single-name risk, but market-cap weighting leaves investors exposed to large-cap growth concentration and does little to hedge a correlated equity selloff; smaller-company exposure can also amplify liquidity and cyclical sensitivity in stress. The argument that bull-market age forecasts a turn is weak: historical averages do not identify timing, and the cited “best days” statistic is not a market-timing signal without its full methodology and assumptions. Immediate impact should be negligible. Over 1–3 months, worsening breadth, earnings revisions, credit spreads, and volatility would matter more than the age of the bull market. Over 6–18 months, broad exposure may participate in a recovery, but that benefit depends on remaining invested and does not remove drawdown risk. The promotional framing and lack of independently verified fund-flow or holdings analysis make this insufficient to justify a directional position in NVDA or CROX.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No trade in NVDA or CROX on this article; it changes neither company-level cash-flow expectations nor the risk premium we can underwrite.
• Do not de-risk equities solely because the bull market is in its fourth year. Review portfolio concentration and factor exposures instead; treat a broad U.S. market ETF as diversified equity beta, not as a hedge.
• For a 1–3 month risk alert, monitor market breadth, earnings-revision trends, credit spreads, and volatility. A sustained deterioration across these measures would strengthen the case to reduce gross equity exposure; improving breadth and stable revisions would weaken it.
• Before acting on the fund recommendation, verify current holdings/concentration and flows. The thesis is falsified as a useful diversification response if the portfolio remains dominated by the same mega-cap growth factor exposure or if a broad selloff overwhelms the single-name diversification benefit.