U.S. businesses hedging their bets on North American trade as tariffs and trade disputes show no signs of abating

Livingston International’s 2026 survey found 92% of U.S. importers and exporters are confident in North American trade stability, but 84% of importers plan to source outside North America and 77% of businesses expect to pause investment in regional supply chains pending greater stability. Tariff costs are being passed to consumers by 62% of businesses, while 77% say operations struggle to keep pace with policy changes and compliance requirements.

Analysis

The signal is less a forecast of trade collapse than evidence that policy uncertainty is already taxing investment decisions. If firms delay North American supply-chain capex while diversifying sourcing, near-term demand may weaken for industrial equipment, construction and regional logistics; over time, incremental spend could shift toward customs compliance, supply-chain visibility and multi-region freight. That is a relative reallocation, not necessarily an increase in total trade. Tariff pass-through also shifts the risk from importer margins toward consumer volumes and inflation, especially if demand proves less elastic than companies expect.

Treat the survey as directional: it was commissioned by a customs broker, captures stated intentions rather than completed moves, and does not quantify capex, tariff exposure or sector mix. The apparent optimism in trade stability is therefore not equivalent to investment confidence. Near term, watch earnings commentary for capex deferrals, inventory front-loading and realized tariff costs. Over 1–3 months, policy clarification or renewed uncertainty could move those indicators; over 6–18 months, supplier qualification, tooling and logistics capacity determine whether sourcing shifts become durable. A reversal would be clearer policy rules and resumed North American investment. The contrarian risk is overreading intentions: firms may retain existing suppliers because switching costs and compliance burdens are high.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No broad directional trade on the survey alone. Use it as an alert to scrutinize North America-exposed industrials’ order trends and management commentary on deferred projects, rather than extrapolating stated sourcing plans into realized demand.
• Prefer a conditional relative-value screen: favor trade-compliance and supply-chain visibility providers over businesses reliant on uninterrupted North American capex, but establish positions only after confirming revenue exposure and valuation; the report does not establish company-level beneficiaries.
• Over the next 1–3 months, track tariff pass-through, import volumes, inventory levels and company capex guidance. Rising consumer-price pressure alongside weaker volumes would favor a more defensive stance on consumer-facing sectors; stable volumes and resumed investment would weaken the thesis.
• Falsification: broad-based upward revisions to North American capital-spending plans, evidence that firms are not changing suppliers, or clearer and durable trade-policy rules. Verify actual investment and sourcing data; survey intentions alone are insufficient.