2 Fintech Stocks to Buy While Their Customer Numbers Keep Climbing

SoFi and Robinhood shares have fallen 46% and 38%, respectively, over the past 12 months as rising Treasury yields pressured valuations, but the article argues their pullbacks may offer buying opportunities. In Q3 2026, SoFi members rose 35% year over year to 17.1 million and products in use grew 44% to 26.7 million; Robinhood had 28.7 million funded customers and a record 5.2 million Gold subscribers. Analysts forecast 2025–2028 revenue growth CAGRs of 29% for SoFi and 21% for Robinhood, while the article sees long-term growth potential despite cyclical trading and valuation risks.

Analysis

The key valuation question is whether growth is durable through a weaker cycle, not whether either platform can add products. SOFI’s lower multiple may reflect real bank-like risks: credit losses, deposit pricing and reliance on loan sales or referrals. A softer rate backdrop could lift fintech multiples while compressing some interest income; the mix and timing matter. Galileo’s account count is not equivalent to monetized revenue, so verify segment revenue and contribution before assigning it a platform multiple.

HOOD’s diversification reduces—but does not eliminate—its exposure to trading activity. Gold subscriptions may cushion a volume slump, but a risk-off tape can still pressure transaction revenue and customer engagement. Its much higher sales multiple leaves less room for an earnings miss than SOFI’s, and new product categories should not be capitalized as recurring earnings until adoption and economics are demonstrated.

Near term, Treasury yields and risk appetite likely dominate price action. Over 1–3 months, watch SOFI loan-platform volume, credit performance and deposit growth, and HOOD Gold retention and revenue mix. Over 6–18 months, the thesis depends on non-lending/non-trading businesses becoming material without deteriorating risk or customer economics. Contrarian view: SOFI may deserve a bank discount until credit-cycle resilience is proven; HOOD may not be “cheap” if trading revenue normalizes sharply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer a staged SOFI long over chasing both names: add only if credit metrics remain stable and loan-platform revenue converts into repeatable fees. Falsify if charge-offs or delinquencies worsen materially, or growth increasingly depends on balance-sheet lending.
• Keep HOOD neutral/watch rather than treating its drawdown as a clear bargain. Reassess after evidence that Gold and other recurring revenue can offset weaker transaction activity; a sustained decline in funded customers or subscription retention would undermine the diversification thesis.
• For a relative-value expression, consider a beta- and dollar-adjusted SOFI-long/HOOD-short only if the valuation gap narrows without deterioration in SOFI credit quality. The short leg is vulnerable to renewed retail activity, so define risk around trading-volume and earnings updates.
• Monitor Treasury yields alongside company results: a sharp yield rise could pressure both valuation multiples, while a rate decline is not automatically positive if it also reduces interest-related revenue. Avoid sizing on rate direction alone.