SOO GREEN HVDC LINK AND ONE NUCLEAR SIGN LETTER OF INTENT TO EXPLORE DELIVERING FIRM NUCLEAR ENERGY AND CAPACITY TO PJM

SOO Green and ONE Nuclear signed a nonbinding LOI to explore routing nuclear power from ONE Nuclear’s planned Iowa project, targeted at up to 1,000 MW, over SOO Green’s proposed 2,100-MW, 350-mile underground HVDC line into PJM. The projects remain separate, and any commercial arrangements depend on definitive agreements, permitting, financing and other approvals; SOO Green targets construction as early as 2028 and operations in 2032. The article cites projected PJM capacity prices of $732/MW-day in 2033 and $872/MW-day in 2034, and an Illinois report warning of potential power shortfalls beginning in northern Illinois by 2029.

Analysis

The investable signal is optionality on a constrained MISO–PJM interface, not a nuclear award: an LOI creates no contracted volume, revenue, or financing certainty. If the line advances, scheduled transfers into northern Illinois could ease local scarcity and capture congestion value; that may benefit customers while pressuring incumbent generators’ scarcity rents. Whether this value accrues to the line, generators, or ratepayers depends on tariffs, capacity rights, and cost allocation—none is established here.

For PPL, Siemens Energy (ENR), and Prysmian (PRY), participation is potential project exposure, not evidence of a material order or earnings contribution. Verify contract scope, backlog recognition, cancellation terms, and funding before underwriting upside. SOO Green’s open-access design also means ONE Nuclear would compete for access with other generators; the LOI does not secure a captive route to market.

Near term, the year-end permitting milestone and any federal legislation are sentiment catalysts, but permitting is not construction approval. Over 1–3 months, watch definitive agreements, route permits, interconnection and transmission-rights details, and evidence of committed financing. The 2032 operating target makes meaningful equipment revenue a later-cycle possibility; cost escalation, delays, or a weak nuclear project could strand expected supplier optionality. The contrarian point: projected capacity prices may be bullish for firm generation, yet a new import path could reduce local scarcity and weaken the very price signal supporting new-build economics. Reassess if permitting slips, the line lacks financing/offtake, or supplier disclosures fail to show attributable orders.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate directional trade on the LOI alone. Treat the announcement as a watch item, not a booked-order catalyst.
• Track PPL, ENR, and PRY disclosures for named contract value, backlog conversion, cancellation exposure, and project funding; do not infer material earnings sensitivity from partner status.
• Monitor permitting progress, definitive commercial agreements, transmission access and cost-allocation rules, and whether federal permitting legislation advances. A delay beyond the stated permitting target or absent financing would weaken the development thesis.
• For power-market exposure, monitor northern Illinois/PJM forward capacity prices and MISO–PJM congestion spreads: sustained scarcity supports firm-generation economics, while credible transfer capability could compress local scarcity rents.