Waste Heat Recovery Market worth $135.33 billion by 2031 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets™

MarketsandMarkets projects the global waste heat recovery market will grow from $92.99 billion in 2026 to $135.33 billion by 2031, a 7.8% CAGR, supported by industrial decarbonization mandates, high energy costs, and stricter emissions rules. Steam and electricity generation represented 57.0% of the market in 2025, while petroleum refining accounted for 28.8%; Europe held a 38.0% regional share. Preheating applications, cement end users, and Asia-Pacific are expected to post the fastest growth, benefiting suppliers including Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, ABB, and Shanghai Electric.

Analysis

This is a low-impact third-party market forecast, not evidence of incremental orders; the near-term read-through for GEV, ENR, ABBN and WRT1V depends on disclosed heat-recovery bookings, margin mix and backlog conversion rather than projected market CAGR. The investable mechanism is strongest where waste-heat systems are sold as engineered, power-generation-adjacent packages: higher project content can lift revenue per installation, but fixed-price execution, long permitting cycles and working-capital consumption can delay EPS realization by 12-24 months.

ENR and GEV have the clearest potential upside if industrial customers choose heat-recovery steam generation alongside gas-turbine upgrades, creating attach-rate economics rather than standalone equipment demand. ABBN is more likely to monetize through drives, electrification and control-system content; this is lower headline revenue but potentially better-margin and less exposed to project execution. WRT1V is a niche beneficiary in marine and distributed-power applications, although its addressable opportunity is more dependent on fuel spreads and shipping-cycle capex than broad industrial decarbonization spending.

The underappreciated second-order beneficiary may be cement modernization rather than equipment OEMs: lower fuel intensity can protect EBITDA for HEI, HOLN and CRH where carbon costs and energy inputs remain elevated. Conversely, an industrial slowdown or lower European natural-gas prices weakens retrofit paybacks and makes discretionary efficiency capex among the first budgets deferred. Over 1-3 months, watch order commentary and industrial capex guidance; over 6-18 months, the catalyst is a measurable increase in retrofit awards in Asia and European carbon-compliance spending.

Consensus should not capitalize the full market-growth rate into the diversified OEMs. Waste-heat recovery remains fragmented and project-specific, while China-based suppliers can pressure equipment pricing. The thesis is falsified if GEV/ENR report expanding thermal-equipment backlog without corresponding margin or cash-conversion improvement, or if European gas prices fall sufficiently to lengthen customer retrofit paybacks.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate directional trade solely on this release; set alerts for GEV and ENR quarterly disclosures showing identifiable industrial heat-recovery/HRSG order growth and book-to-bill above 1.0x. Upgrade only if management quantifies backlog and margin accretion.
• Prefer a 6-12 month long ABBN / short ENR relative position if industrial efficiency capex accelerates: ABBN should capture higher-margin controls and electrification content with lower fixed-price project risk. Exit if ABBN process-automation orders decelerate or ENR demonstrates superior cash conversion from its gas-services backlog.
• Watch long WRT1V on a 3-9 month horizon only after marine order intake confirms waste-heat recovery adoption; use a tight risk limit around a material deterioration in marine equipment orders, since fuel-price weakness can rapidly impair retrofit economics.
• For carbon- and energy-cost pressure, evaluate HEI or HOLN as indirect 12-18 month beneficiaries of kiln retrofits rather than chasing OEM valuation expansion. Require evidence that retrofit capex reduces fuel cost per tonne without offsetting volume weakness or maintenance downtime.