Here's What a $10,000 Investment in SpaceX Stock Could Be Worth in 2035 (Hint: It's a Lot)

The article projects SpaceX could reach roughly $2.25 trillion in annual revenue and $41.24 in adjusted EPS by 2035, with a modeled share price of about $780—more than five times its stated current price near $151. The bullish thesis centers on AI-compute leasing, including a reported $1.1 billion-per-month contract and potential $83 billion of 2027 AI revenue in Evercore's estimate, alongside Starlink revenue growth of 66% year over year to $4.3 billion. Starlink subscribers reportedly doubled to 12 million, while Starship and space-based AI infrastructure add longer-term optionality; however, the valuation range is exceptionally wide at $210 to $1,670 per share and depends on substantial execution and capital spending.

Analysis

The core underwriting issue is verification, not valuation: the operating claims combine assets and economics that would require separate disclosure of GPU ownership, power procurement, customer concentration, lease duration, and capex commitments. A purported one-year infrastructure payback is unlikely to be durable if it reflects scarce-GPU spot pricing; as hyperscaler and neocloud capacity comes online over the next 12-24 months, utilization and pricing can normalize faster than depreciation, pressuring returns. The market should assign little value to long-dated orbital-compute optionality until launch cadence, payload economics, and off-Earth power/thermal constraints are independently demonstrated.

If the disclosed figures prove accurate, the nearer-term beneficiary is NVDA: a rapid expansion in installed GPU capacity extends accelerator demand and supports networking attach rates. But a vertically integrated compute lessor could become a competitive headwind for CoreWeave-type neocloud economics and potentially for satellite peers such as ASTS and IRDM if bundled connectivity and enterprise compute contracts lower customer acquisition costs. Consensus-style 2035 price targets are not decision-useful: a revenue multiple applied a decade forward masks the central variables—cumulative dilution, capital intensity, power cost, and whether recurring connectivity cash flow can fund compute expansion without refinancing.

Contrarian view: the stock may be more vulnerable to a de-rating than the optimistic narrative implies because a narrow post-listing range can reflect limited float rather than fundamental price discovery. Over the next 1-3 months, audited segment reporting, capex guidance, backlog conversion, and related-party/customer disclosures matter far more than additional capacity announcements. A credible upward re-rate requires contracted revenue growing faster than capex and evidence that gross margins hold after depreciation; failure on either metric makes a high-sales-multiple framework untenable.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not initiate a directional SPCX position until exchange listing, audited filings, share count, and segment-level capex/revenue disclosures are independently verified; treat the article's operating assertions as unverified rather than investable estimates.
• If verification confirms material near-term GPU procurement, maintain a 3-6 month tactical NVDA overweight versus equal-weight semiconductor exposure; upside comes from accelerator and networking attach, while thesis fails if disclosed GPU orders are financed, deferred, or sourced predominantly from secondary capacity.
• Use any SPCX position only as a small event-driven allocation after the first earnings release, with a hard review trigger if quarterly contracted compute revenue does not exceed quarterly infrastructure capex or if Starlink net subscriber additions decelerate for two consecutive quarters.
• Monitor a relative-value short basket of high-multiple neocloud operators against NVDA only after confirmed SPCX capacity and customer terms are published; the trade is invalid if incremental capacity is already fully contracted on multi-year take-or-pay agreements at returns above cost of capital.