Looking for Stocks with Positive Earnings Momentum? Check Out These 2 Oils and Energy Names

Ahead of their October 2026 earnings reports, Nextpower (NXT) has a Zacks Earnings ESP of +3.23%, based on a $1.15 most accurate estimate versus $1.11 consensus, and a #3 (Hold) rank. Shell (SHEL), rated #1 (Strong Buy), has a +17.69% ESP from a $3.51 estimate versus $2.98 consensus. Zacks says positive ESP combined with a rank of #3 or better has historically preceded positive earnings surprises 70% of the time; both companies’ results remain pending.

Analysis

The signal here is estimate dispersion, not evidence of improving underlying economics. A positive ESP can identify a near-term beat candidate, but the article’s historical hit rate and return figure are backtest claims; they do not establish that either stock will outperform from current prices or that a beat will exceed what is already priced in. Shell’s larger estimate gap makes it the more interesting event to investigate, but its quarterly EPS can also move with commodity and refining/trading conditions, so estimate revisions may be tracking volatile inputs rather than durable operating momentum. For Nextpower, a beat would be more informative if supported by shipment timing, project execution and forward demand—not merely quarterly EPS timing. Near term, any reaction is likely to hinge on guidance and the quality of the beat. Over 1–3 months, watch post-report estimate revisions and whether the results shift forward expectations; over 6–18 months, structural performance depends on sustained demand and execution, not this screen. Contrarian point: the article treats a positive surprise as an opportunity, but a beat with unchanged guidance—or a beat already embedded in the stock—can still produce a sell-the-news response. No valuation, implied-move, or options-pricing data are provided, so the ESP figures alone do not justify a directional trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Treat both names as earnings-event watchlist candidates, not automatic buys. Before taking exposure, compare current options-implied moves with historical post-earnings moves and check whether estimate revisions are broad-based or concentrated in one analyst’s update.
• For Shell, consider only a small, defined-risk bullish event position if commodity and refining/trading indicators remain supportive and the expected move is not already expensive; reduce or avoid exposure if those indicators deteriorate before the report.
• For Nextpower, wait for confirmation in reported execution and forward commentary on demand before adding on a beat. A headline EPS surprise without stronger outlook or evidence of durable delivery would not validate a longer-term long thesis.
• Falsifiers: a miss, weaker forward guidance, or downward estimate revisions after either report; for Shell, a material adverse move in relevant energy/refining conditions; for Nextpower, signs that quarterly results reflect timing rather than sustained demand or execution.