Could Buying This 1 Cryptocurrency Make You Rich?

NEAR Protocol is up 233% in 2026, but remains 75% below its January 2022 all-time high and has a history of extreme annual swings, including a 91% decline in 2022 and a 69% decline in 2025. The article notes a new Bitwise spot NEAR ETF and a $6.5 billion market cap, nearly twice Bittensor’s $3.5 billion, while emphasizing uncertainty about NEAR’s long-term position in AI and blockchain. The author says they are staying away from NEAR for now.

Analysis

The key valuation question is whether AI-agent activity creates durable demand for NEAR tokens—not whether NEAR can attract AI headlines. Usage may accrue to applications or infrastructure without meaningfully increasing token demand; verify fee capture, repeat agent transactions, and token supply dynamics before treating product launches as an earnings-like catalyst. The new ETF may improve access and marginal demand, but its existence alone does not establish sustained inflows or on-chain adoption. Near term, momentum and ETF-related positioning can reinforce one another, leaving the token vulnerable to a fast reversal if flows disappoint. Over 1–3 months, watch ETF net creations alongside organic usage and fee trends. Over 6–18 months, the structural test is whether developers and agents choose NEAR repeatedly over established networks, not whether it leads a changing category ranking. The contrarian risk is that dismissing the ETF as mere narrative could miss a genuine distribution channel; sustained creations paired with measurable usage would challenge the cautious case. Conversely, a widening gap between price performance and usage would falsify the adoption thesis.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase the rally on narrative alone. Treat NEAR as a high-volatility, thesis-dependent position rather than a proxy for broad AI adoption.
• Conditional relative-value idea: if NEAR extends its outperformance while fee generation and repeat agent activity fail to improve, consider a beta-adjusted short NEAR / long Ethereum or Solana pair. Avoid the trade if borrow, funding, or liquidity costs make the hedge unreliable.
• Before initiating or adding, verify ETF net creations, token unlock/emission schedules, and whether reported agent activity translates into recurring on-chain fees. Until then, keep exposure small or wait.
• Reassess the bearish relative-value view if sustained ETF inflows coincide with persistent growth in repeat agent transactions and token-linked fee demand; reduce or exit if that evidence appears.