All the EVs that were discontinued or killed off in the U.S. this year

The important read-through is not “EV demand is dead,” but that the U.S. market is sorting into two buckets: locally built, policy-compliant product that can still earn share, and imported/low-volume EVs that are becoming uneconomic. That is bearish for brands with weak U.S. manufacturing optionality and for any supplier or JV dependent on thin-volume EV programs, while it modestly helps OEMs that can pivot capacity back to higher-margin ICE/hybrid trucks and SUVs over the next 1-3 quarters.

HMC and PSNY look like the cleanest losers because both are exposed to regulatory and trade friction rather than pure consumer preference; that is the kind of impairment that lasts until the cost structure changes, not just until the next model year. GM is a mixed outcome: losing a partner program is a small volume hit, but the bigger issue is that it confirms the U.S. EV take-rate remains too weak to justify excess fixed capacity unless pricing improves. VWAGY is more interesting than the headline suggests — retreating from U.S. EVs may actually protect margin near term if those factories and dealer channels are refocused on higher-velocity gasoline product.

Contrarian view: the consensus is over-indexing on “EV slowdown” and underweighting product rationalization. The market may be too quick to punish VWAGY and HMC without distinguishing between low-quality EV exits and broader franchise strength; conversely, TSLA is less hurt by category weakness than weaker OEMs because every exit improves its share of the surviving market, even if premium-model mix is structurally less important. The key falsifier is if U.S. EV share re-accelerates above current levels without subsidy support, which would imply this is a temporary policy shock rather than a permanent margin reset.