NuScale Power Stock Will Spike 23.7% Over the Next 11 Months According to This Wall Street Analyst

NuScale Power (SMR) shares are down nearly 40% in 2026, but Bank of America analyst Rinny Singh reiterated a Buy and set a $12 target (about 24% upside). The bull case hinges on converting a non-binding 6GW TVA small modular reactor agreement into a firm power-purchase agreement (PPA), with NuScale management suggesting a PPA could be in place by end-2026. Singh noted slower deal-to-firm conversion earlier this year and near-term funding risk, but improving liquidity (~$1.9B cash as of last quarter) reduces funding concerns, though it may come with dilution risk.

Analysis

SMR is trading less like an operating company and more like a binary financing option on whether a first utility contract can be made bankable. The cash buffer buys time, but it also confirms the equity remains the backstop until contracted cash flows exist; that keeps dilution risk in the capital structure and limits any durable multiple expansion until a binding PPA is signed.

The main second-order winner from a signed deal is not just SMR but the broader advanced-nuclear ecosystem: project financiers, equipment vendors, and other SMR developers would get a real comp for utility willingness to sign long-duration clean-firm PPAs. The loser is the “renewables-plus-storage solves everything” narrative, because a contracted SMR at utility scale would force investors to revisit the share of load growth that can be met by intermittent-only portfolios and gas peakers.

Timing matters. Over the next 1-3 months the stock will trade on rumor velocity and any slip in PPA timing; over 6-18 months the real driver is whether the company can show repeatable utility conversion after the first deal. The thesis breaks if TVA does not cross the line by year-end or if the project requires another large equity raise; a confirmed PPA could unlock a meaningful re-rate, but absent that, this still looks like an event-driven name with low fundamental visibility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating a fresh outright long in SMR before a binding PPA; the current setup is dominated by timing risk, and downside from a delay likely comes fast over the next 1-3 months.
• For nuclear exposure, prefer a lower-execution-risk basket or pair trade rather than making SMR the core position; SMR should be treated as optionality until contract conversion is verified.
• Set a catalyst alert on any TVA PPA announcement; if signed, a tactical long SMR can work for 2-6 weeks with a tight stop on a post-event fade, targeting a 20%-30% re-rating.
• If the PPA remains non-binding into year-end, consider shorting strength in SMR against a cleaner nuclear alternative for 1-3 months; the thesis then shifts from growth to funding and dilution.