Q1 2026 Advantage Energy Ltd Earnings Call

May 1, 2026

Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Advantage Energy Limited Q1 2026 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. Also note that this call is being recorded on Friday, 1 May 2026. I would like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagnell, Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker #2: Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. And if at any time during this call you require me to assistance, please press star 0 for the operator.

Speaker #2: Also, note that this call is being recorded on Friday, May 1, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagno, Vice President.

Operator: Also note that this call is being recorded on Friday, 1 May 2026. I would like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagnell, Vice President. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker #2: Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Sylvie, and welcome, everybody, to today's conference call to discuss ADVANTAGE's first-quarter 2026 results. Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that our remarks today will include forward-looking information and references to specified financial measures.

Brian Bagnell: Thank you, Sylvie, and welcome everybody to today's conference call to discuss Advantage's Q1 2026 results. Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that our remarks today will include forward-looking information and references to specified financial measures. Advisories on these items are contained in our news release, MD&A, and annual information form, which are available on our website and on SEDAR. I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation on our website. I'm here today with Mike Belenkie, President and CEO of Advantage; Craig Blackwood, our CFO, and the other members of our executive team. We'll start today by speaking to some of our financial and operational highlights. Once Mike is finished speaking, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions.

Speaker #2: Advisories on these items are contained in our news release, MD&A, and annual information form, which are available on our website and on CDAR. I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation on our website.

Speaker #2: I'm here today with Mike Belanger, President and CEO of Advantage, Craig Blackwood, our CFO, and other members of our executive team. We'll start today by speaking to some of our financial and operational highlights.

Speaker #2: Once Mike has finished speaking, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions. And as usual, I'd like to ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions, you follow up with us individually after the call.

Brian Bagnell: As usual, I'd like to ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions, that you follow up with us individually after the call. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike Belenkie.

Speaker #2: And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike Belankey. Thank you, Brian. And thanks, everyone, for joining us today. It's my pleasure to discuss our results from the first quarter of 2026 and the years off to a great start.

Mike Belenkie: Thank you, Brian. Thanks, everyone for joining us today. It's my pleasure to discuss our results from Q1 2026. The year is off to a great start. Advantage generated adjusted funds flow of CAD 121 million or CAD 0.73 per share. It was a highly active quarter, with capital spending of CAD 136 million, which is almost 50% of our full year capital budget just in Q1. We offset a portion of our spending by selling an unutilized infrastructure asset for CAD 12 million, plus assets in kind worth an additional CAD 7 million. This helped us keep debt levels relatively flat at CAD 556 million. Production averaged 81,375 BOEs per day in the quarter, which was a 2% increase from Q4 2025.

Speaker #2: ADVANTAGE generated adjusted funds flow of $121 million or 73 cents per share. It was a highly active quarter with capital spending of $136 million which is almost 50% of our full-year capital budget, just in the one quarter.

Speaker #2: We offset a portion of our spending by selling an unutilized infrastructure asset for $12 million, plus assets in kind worth an additional $7 million.

Speaker #2: And this helped us keep debt levels relatively flat at $556 million. Production averaged 81,375 BOE per day in the quarter, which was a 2% increase from the fourth quarter of 2025.

Speaker #2: And liquids continued to play an increasingly important role in our business, generating 44% of total sales revenue during the quarter at an average realized price of $84 per barrel.

Mike Belenkie: Liquids continue to play an increasingly important role in our business, generating 44% of total sales revenue during the quarter at an average realized price of CAD 84 per barrel. Even in a quarter with weak gas prices and an intensive spending profile, the business continued to generate strong cash flows. We drilled 12 gross wells in Glacier and Valhalla, and 13 gross wells were recently brought on production. Our oil-weighted Charlie Lake asset continues to exceed expectations, with 5 wells brought on production in Q1. We're forecasting the asset will deliver over CAD 120 million of free cash flow this year, reinforcing the benefits of diversification.

Speaker #2: So even in a quarter with weak gas prices and an intensive spending profile, the business continued to generate strong cash flows. We drilled 12 gross wells in Glacier and Valhalla, and 13 gross wells were recently brought on production.

Speaker #2: Our oil-weighted Charlie Lake asset continues to exceed expectations, with five wells brought on production in the first quarter. We're forecasting the asset will deliver over $120 million of free cash flow this year.

Speaker #2: Reinforcing the benefits of diversification. Meanwhile, our recent wells in the Valhalla Montney delivered strong initial rates, and wells had condensate ratios exceeding 185 barrels per million cubic feet.

Mike Belenkie: Meanwhile, our recent wells in Valhalla Montney delivered strong initial rates and wellhead condensate ratios exceeded 185 barrels per million cubic feet, which is in line with the greater Wembley Play, though this is early data, we will be keeping an eye on the decline profiles. Most significantly during the quarter, construction of our new 75 million cubic foot per day Progress Gas Plant reached mechanical completion and commissioning is now underway. The Progress Gas Plant is perfectly located at the intersection of 3 of our liquids-rich plays, the Valhalla Montney, the Progress Montney, and the Charlie Lake. Not only will this plant drive the next phase of growth for Advantage and help reduce operating costs, but it's also a realization of a regional development strategy we've been pursuing for the last 15 years.

Speaker #2: Which is in line with a greater Wembley play, though this is early data, and we will be keeping an eye on the decline profiles.

Speaker #2: Most significantly, during the quarter, construction of our new 75 million cubic foot per day Progress gas plant reached mechanical completion, and commissioning is now underway.

Speaker #2: The progress gas plant is perfectly located at the intersection of three of our liquids-rich plays: the Valhalla Montney, the Progress Montney, and the Charlie Lake.

Speaker #2: Not only will this plant drive the next phase of growth for Advantage and help reduce operating costs, but it's also a realization of a regional development strategy we've been pursuing for the last 15 years.

Speaker #2: The last pieces of the puzzle have now fallen into place. With Glacier, Valhalla, Progress, and the overlapping Charlie Lake assets all the way up to Gordon Dale, now forming one massive contiguous resource block.

Mike Belenkie: The last pieces of the puzzle have now fallen into place, with Glacier, Valhalla, Progress, and the overlapping Charlie Lake assets all the way up to Gordondale now forming one massive contiguous resource block with a network of owned and operated strategic infrastructure. This is a significant milestone for us, and I'd like to take a moment to thank our team for their hard work finishing this important project on time and on budget. With spending on Progress behind us, we're entering a period of highly efficient capital development with escalating free cash flow. We don't plan to spend any capital on capacity expansions for at least two years, with almost all spending aimed at high rate of return wells into existing infrastructure. We have less than CAD 100 million of capital planned in H2 2026.

Speaker #2: With a network of owned and operated strategic infrastructure, this is a significant milestone for us, and I'd like to take a moment to thank our team for their hard work finishing this important project on time and on budget.

Speaker #2: With spending on progress behind us, we're entering a period of highly efficient capital development with escalating free cash flow. We don't plan to spend any capital on capacity expansions for at least two years.

Speaker #2: With almost all spending aimed at high rate of return wells into existing infrastructure. We have less than $100 million of capital planned in the second half of 2026.

Speaker #2: This has brought us to an important inflection point in our capital efficiency and free cash flow profile. Beginning in the third quarter of 2026, we expect production to average approximately $90,000 BUEs per day.

Mike Belenkie: This has brought us to an important inflection point in our capital efficiency and free cash flow profile. Beginning in Q3 2026, we expect production to average approximately 90,000 BOEs per day, It should stay there through to the end of 2027 and beyond. That'll deliver production growth in 2027 of about 7% over 2026. Now, looking forward, our corporate strategy remains the same to maximize cash flow per share without compromising our balance sheet. This means a laser-like focus on picking the highest rate of return wells with every penny of discretionary capital. Naturally, our liquids plays have superior returns right now, with AECO hovering around CAD 1 per GJ and WTI at CAD 100. This is a historical disconnect.

Speaker #2: And it should stay there through to the end of 2027 and beyond. And that'll deliver production growth in 2027 of about 7% over 2026.

Speaker #2: Now, looking forward, our corporate strategy remains the same: to maximize cash flow per share without compromising our balance sheet. This means a laser-like focus on picking the highest rate of return wells with every penny of discretionary capital.

Speaker #2: Naturally, our liquids plays have superior returns right now, with ACO hovering around $1 per GJ. And WTI at $100. This is a historical disconnect.

Speaker #2: At these prices, we expect our forecasted oil and NGL volumes to average approximately $100 per barrel and account for 58% of sales between the second and fourth quarters of 2026.

Mike Belenkie: At these prices, we expect our forecasted oil and NGL volumes to average approximately CAD 100 per barrel and account for 58% of sales between Q2 and Q4 of 2026. We're reallocating approximately CAD 25 million of capital this year from Glacier gas targets, which at strip would be expected to have payouts of about a year and a half to Wembley oil targets, which are expected to have payouts of about 8 months. Our Charlie Lake wells currently have payouts of about 6 months. Although the BOE volumes for oily wells are typically lower than gassy wells, and when I say that, I'm speaking about the IP30s and so on, the impact of these of shifting to oily wells in our 2026 program will be minor on our total production forecast.

Speaker #2: We're reallocating approximately $25 million of capital this year from Glacier gas targets. Which, at strip, would be expected to have payouts of about a year and a half.

Speaker #2: So Wembley oil targets, which are expected to have payouts of about eight months. Our Charlie Lake wells currently have payouts of about six months.

Speaker #2: Although the BOE volumes for oily wells are typically lower than gassy wells, and when I say that, I'm speaking about the IP30s and so on.

Speaker #2: The impact of our the impact of these shifting to oily wells in our 2026 program will be minor. On our total production forecast. So there is no need to adjust our 2026 production guides.

Mike Belenkie: There's no need to adjust our 2026 production guides. Depending on how long oil prices remain strong, we may shift additional capital to liquids drilling later this year. Debt reduction remains a top priority. We expect to achieve our net debt target range of about CAD 400 to 500 million during the H2 of 2026, with cash flows supported by our hedging program and market diversification, even if natural gas pricing remains weak. Given our proximity to that target, Advantage is opportunistically allocating a portion of free cash flow to share buybacks through the Q2 and into the summer. That approach is consistent with our longstanding capital allocation framework, especially given our current trading dynamics with Canadian gas producers trading at a significant discount to the greater market and Advantage at a discount within that group.

Speaker #2: Depending on how long oil prices remain strong, we may shift additional capital to liquids drilling later this year. Debt reduction remains a top priority.

Speaker #2: We expect to achieve our net debt target range of about $400 to $500 million during the second half of 2026. With cash flows supported by our hedging program and market diversification, even if natural gas pricing remains weak.

Speaker #2: Given our proximity to that target, ADVANTAGE is opportunistically allocating a portion of free cash flow to share buybacks. Through the second quarter and into the summer.

Speaker #2: That approach is consistent with our long-standing capital allocation framework, especially given our current trading dynamics, with Canadian gas producers trading at a significant discount to the greater market.

Speaker #2: And Advantage at a discount within that group. We have hedged approximately 41% of our forecasted natural gas production in 2026, as well as 29% of our production in 2027 and 18% in 2028.

Mike Belenkie: We have hedged approximately 41% of our forecast of natural gas production in 2026, as well as 29% of our production in 2027 and 18% in 2028. As a result of our hedging and downstream market diversification, our AECO exposure has now fallen to approximately 18% for the remainder of 2026. We have also hedged approximately 42% of our crude and NGL production this year and 26% in 2027. These steps have been important to reduce the volatility of our cash flows by reducing exposure to localized pricing weakness. As we look a little further into the future, we expect to continue our 5% to 10% annual production growth for the foreseeable future, although this growth is always carefully tuned to suit the commodity price outlook.

Speaker #2: As a result of our hedging and downstream market diversification, our ACO exposure has now fallen to approximately 18% for the remainder of 2026. We have also hedged approximately 42% of our crude.

Speaker #2: And NGL production this year, and 26% in 2027. These steps have been important to reduce the volatility of our cash flows by reducing exposure to localized pricing weakness.

Speaker #2: As we look a little further into the future, we expect to continue our 5% to 10% annual production growth for the foreseeable future, although this growth is always carefully tuned to suit the commodity price outlook.

Speaker #2: We have owned and operated gas capacity that exceeds 500 million cubic feet per day. Plus some midstream service. And this is adequate for us to grow our production to 100,000 BUEs per day.

Mike Belenkie: We have owned and operated gas capacity that exceeds 500 million cubic feet per day plus some midstream service. This is adequate for us to grow our production to 100,000 BOEs per day without any major infrastructure expansions. Depending on commodity pricing, we could be approaching this 100,000 BOE per day milestone as early as year-end 2028. There's one more thing. We also have an additional 100 million cubic feet per day of capacity ready to be reactivated at Conroy in British Columbia when market conditions are supportive for us to enter the province. I also want to briefly touch on Entropy. Construction of the Glacier CCS Phase 2 project is almost complete. Commissioning is expected to begin in the coming months.

Speaker #2: Without any major infrastructure expansions. Depending on the commodity pricing, we could be approaching this 100,000 BUE per day milestone as early as year-end 2028.

Speaker #2: And, as one more thing, we also have an additional 100 million cubic feet per day of capacity ready to be reactivated at Conroy, in British Columbia.

Speaker #2: When market conditions are supportive for us to enter the province. I also want to briefly touch on Entropy. Construction of the Glacier CCS Phase Two project is almost complete, and commissioning is expected to begin in the coming months.

Speaker #2: This project is intended to substantially decarbonize the glacier facility. And drive a positive step change in operating income. Which comes from contracted power sales.

Mike Belenkie: This project is intended to substantially decarbonize the Glacier facility and drive a positive step change in operating income, which comes from contracted power sales and contractually guaranteed carbon pricing. All funding for the project is being provided by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. Overall, our message today is straightforward. The Q1 reflected a business that continues to perform well through the commodity price cycle while approaching a major step change in capital efficiency. We are bringing the Progress gas plant into service, improving our commodity exposure through hedging and market diversification, and moving towards a period of strong free cash flow, driving debt reduction and ramping share buybacks. With that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support. I'll pass it back to Brian for questions.

Speaker #2: And contractually guaranteed carbon pricing. All funding for the project is being provided by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. Overall, our message today is straightforward.

Speaker #2: The first quarter reflected a business that continues to perform well through the commodity price cycle, while approaching a major step change in capital efficiency.

Speaker #2: We are bringing the Progress gas plant into service, improving our commodity exposure through hedging and market diversification, and moving towards a period of strong free cash flow.

Speaker #2: Driving debt reduction and ramping share buybacks. So with that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support.

Speaker #2: And I'll pass it back to Brian for questions. Thank you, Mike. Sylvie, we'll pass it over to you to see if there are any questions from the phone lines.

Brian Bagnell: Thank you, Mike. Sylvie, we'll pass it over to you to see if there are any questions, from the phone lines. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you.

Speaker #3: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have any questions from the phone, please press star followed by one on your touch-tone phone.

Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have any questions from the phone, please press star followed by one on your touch-tone phone. You will then hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have any questions. Currently, sir, it appears we have no questions registered from the phone line.

Speaker #3: You will then hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. And should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two.

Speaker #3: And if you're using your speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star one now if you have any questions.

Speaker #3: And currently, sir, it appears we have no questions registered from the phone line.

Brian Bagnell: Okay. Thank you, Sylvie, and thank you everybody for joining the call today. If you have any questions, please feel free to follow up with us after the call. Thank you very much.

Speaker #2: Okay, thank you, Sylvie. And thank you, everybody, for joining the call today. If you have any questions, please feel free to follow up with us after the call.

Speaker #2: Thank you very much.

Speaker #3: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good weekend.