Q1 2026 Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp Earnings Call

May 8, 2026

Speaker #1: You will now enter the conference. Muted. Recording started.

Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by your conference is about to begin. Welcome to the Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp's first quarter results conference call. At this time, all lines are on listen-only mode.

Speaker #3: Later in the call, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will be asked to press *2 on your touch-tone keypad.

Speaker #3: A reminder that this conference is being recorded. Friday, May 8th, 2026. Certain statements will be made during this phone call that may be forward-looking statements.

Speaker #3: Although Atrium believes that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements are based upon beliefs, estimates, and opinions of Atrium's management on the date the statements are made.

Speaker #3: Atrium undertakes no obligations to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates, opinions, or other factors change. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Robert Goodall.

Speaker #3: CEO of Atrium. Mr. Goodall, please go ahead.

Speaker #4: Thank you. And thank you all for calling in on a Friday morning. Our CFO, Chris Anastasopoulos, is joining me today. Crystal Stark, with an overview of our financial results.

Speaker #4: And then I'll speak about our performance from an operational and portfolio perspective. Chris?

Speaker #5: Thank you, Rob. Atrium had a strong start to 2026 despite a continuing challenging lending environment. Atrium generated net income of $12 million in the first quarter and our basic and diluted earnings per share was 25 cents per share, which is consistent with the fourth quarter of 2025 and the comparative quarter of 2025 as well.

Speaker #5: Earnings continued to outpace our regular dividend of 23.5 25 cents per share for the quarter. As expected, the average interest rate on the mortgage portfolio decreased to 8.86% at March 31, 2026, down from 8.98% at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: The decrease was largely driven by repayments of loans with higher yields compared to yields on new loan originations. As at March 31, 2026, 80.1% of the mortgage portfolio was priced based on floating rates, with the majority having floors in place.

Speaker #5: The mortgage portfolio ended the quarter at 896.2 million dollars, a modest decrease of 2.3% from 917.1 million at December 31, 2025. This decrease primarily reflected net portfolio reduction during the quarter, as mortgage advances were offset by interest and principal repayments, with 44.8 million of mortgage principal advanced and 64.5 million repaid and transferred net of write-offs of 0.1 million during the quarter.

Speaker #5: As at March 31, 2026, 95.3% of our mortgages were first mortgages, and we maintained a conservative average loan-to-value ratio of 61.4% for the portfolio, which was unchanged from year-end.

Speaker #5: Our mortgages classified as stage one were 735.3 million dollars at March 31, 2026, down from 40 down 47.1 million from 782.4 million dollars at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: We had 61.66.1 million dollars in mortgages classified as stage two at March 31, 2026, an increase of 17.4 million from 48.7 million at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: This was primarily due to loans migrating to stage two from stage one with four loans being over 30 days past maturity. However, they remain current on their payments.

Speaker #5: Stage three loans increased to 94.8 million dollars from at March 31, 2026, from 86 million at year-end. This was primarily due to the addition of a new 6.9 million dollar loan, which migrated from stage one as it went into default in the quarter.

Speaker #5: Our allowance for credit losses was 31.1 million at March 31, 2026, a modest 2% increase over December 31, 2025. As a percentage of the mortgage portfolio, this represents 3.5%, up from 3.3% at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: The total allowance for credit losses related to stage one loans was 5.8 million at March 31, 2026, down from 6.1 million at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: Our allowance for credit losses on stage two mortgages was 3.4 million at March 31, 2026, an increase from 2.9 million dollars at year-end. And our stage three allowance for credit losses was 21.8 million dollars, up from 21.5 million dollars at December 31, 2025.

Speaker #5: We continue to maintain a strong, liquid, and well-capitalized balance sheet at March 31, 2026. Balance sheet debt remained low at 38.4%, with $262.9 million drawn on our $380 million credit facility, leaving a healthy available capacity.

Speaker #5: The weighted average cost of borrowing on the credit facility was 4.57% for the quarter, down from 5.8 5.08% at year-end. Our debt capacity provides us with the opportunity to make use of the convertible debt mark the venture market later this year.

Speaker #5: If market conditions are favorable. The board also declared a monthly dividend of 7.75 cents per share for the months of July, August, and September 2026.

Speaker #5: This is consistent with our announced 93 cents per share standard dividend for the year. Overall, the first quarter provided strong, consistent performance for our shareholders despite the continuing difficult market conditions.

Speaker #5: We remain committed to our disciplined, risk management approach as we pursue new opportunities, strengthen our team to provide access to more opportunities, managing and operating expenses prudently, and maintaining a strong balance sheet that can withstand stresses from the current economic cycle.

Speaker #5: I will now pass you back to Rob for the business and portfolio updates.

Speaker #4: Thank you, Chris. As Chris said, Atrium had a very good quarter with basic earnings per share of 25 cents. Identical to the two previous quarters.

Speaker #4: The portfolio declined 2.3% quarter over quarter, from 917 million to 896 million. In Q1, loan production was relatively weak in Q1 because of the inactive market conditions.

Speaker #4: In Q1, Atrium's weighted average mortgage rate dropped just marginally from 8.98% to 8.86%. In terms of loan composition, commercial loans rose to 29% of the portfolio, and single-family and apartment mortgages rose to 20.1% of the portfolio.

Speaker #4: We've also increased our exposure to these sectors to over 49%, from 23% of the portfolio in 2024. The total of high-ratio loans—that is, loans over 75% loan-to-value—was $81 million, a slight improvement from last quarter, and equal to 9% of the portfolio.

Speaker #4: The breakdown was approximately 50/50 between single-family mortgages and the commercial and multi-residential loan sector. In Q1, the average loan-to-value of the portfolio remained steady at 61.4% and continues to be well within our desired range of 65%.

Speaker #4: Atrium's percentage of first mortgages, as Chris mentioned, remained very high at 95.3%, which is consistent with our defensive lending strategy. Construction loans decreased slightly in Q1, but we do intend to be more active in this area in the future as construction costs are much more stable today.

Speaker #4: We are working on some construction loans at the current time. Turning to portfolio quality, there were very few new concerns in the portfolio. Although the staging numbers suggest a deterioration in portfolio quality.

Speaker #4: I'll explain. Stage two loans increased by 17.5 million, but the increase was almost entirely caused by the addition of four matured mortgages which are in good standing with no loan quality concerns.

Speaker #4: Those four mortgages have since been renewed and it was really a matter of negotiation with the respective borrowers. But under IFRS 9 rules, loans past maturity are automatically categorized as stage two loans regardless of quality.

Speaker #4: And in the stage three loan category, loans defined as impaired loans, it increased a small amount from 86 million to 95 million. But we anticipate that two of the largest stage three loans representing 41 million or roughly 43% of the total stage three balance will be repaid or refinanced by the end of May.

Speaker #4: In terms of a loan loss reserve, we expense the loan loss loan loss provision of 650,000 in Q1. Compared to a million in the previous quarter.

Speaker #4: And that, again, reinforces the fact that the portfolio quality remained very consistent. On the net basis, Atrium's total allowance for credit losses increased marginally from 30.5 million last quarter to 31.1 million, equal to 347 basis points on the overall mortgage portfolio.

Speaker #4: My economic commentary is as follows. The Bank of Canada recently reported that GDP growth resumed in the first quarter of 2026 after stalling in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Speaker #4: And it projects real GDP growth of 1.2% in '26 and 1.6% in 2027 as Canada continues to adjust to a new trading relationship with the United States.

Speaker #4: Inflationary pressures have increased in recent months with the CPI rising to 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in March primarily because of the Iranian war, which triggered a record increase in gas prices.

Speaker #4: The Bank of Canada expects inflation to remain elevated in the near term, before easing towards its 2% target in 2027 as global prices are assumed to moderate.

Speaker #4: Both Canada and the United States held their policy rates steady in April. Turning to commercial real estate, commercial real estate markets continue to stabilize in Q1.

Speaker #4: The all properties capitalization rate moved two basis points lower in the first quarter to 6.61% after dropping further three basis points in the previous quarter.

Speaker #4: Performance was strongest in the office and industrial sectors, and slightly weaker in the multi-residential sector. Commercial real estate, in my opinion, has held up remarkably well during this downturn.

Speaker #4: The office sector, which had experienced weakness in the last few years, continued to show signs of recovery in Q1. Net absorption in the GTA has exceeded 1 million square feet in each of the last three quarters, and the vacancy rate in downtown Toronto is now 14.4% versus over 18% not long ago.

Speaker #4: Suburban office vacancy rate in the GTA remains elevated, however, at 21%. And by contrast, Vancouver continues to have one of the lowest office vacancy rates in the country, at 10.8%.

Speaker #4: 12.3% downtown and only 9.1% in the suburbs. In the industrial sector, Toronto had the strongest momentum across Canada with 2 million square feet of absorption.

Speaker #4: Vacancy rates at the end of the quarter were 3.7% in Toronto, and 5.1% in Vancouver. In contrast to the commercial real estate sector, the residential housing markets are still relatively weak.

Speaker #4: Starting with resales, the GTA reported some improvement in the last two months, resales increased by 7% year-over-year in April. And new listings declined 9.3% year-over-year.

Speaker #4: Given that sales were up by a greater rate than new listings, more competition between buyers is now starting to occur in the GTA. In Greater Vancouver, April sales decreased slightly by 2.5% year-over-year, and new listings also decreased by 2.4%.

Speaker #4: The benchmark price over the last 12 months declined by 6.6% in the GTA, and by 6.9% in the greater Vancouver area. Turning to new home sales, the soft resale market conditions have contributed to subdued activity in the new home market as construction costs and affordability constraints continue to weigh heavily on demand.

Speaker #4: In the GTA, 948 new home sales occurred in March, up significantly from a year earlier, but still 64% below the 10-year average. Mid and high-rise sales remain particularly slow, at 86% below the 10-year average.

Speaker #4: However, single-family sales totaled 685 homes in March, up 167% from last year, and only 12% below the 10-year average. Industry experts had been expecting a recovery in the low-rise sector first, and this forecast appears to be coming true.

Speaker #4: In the GVA, greater Vancouver area, new home sales were a little better, 974 new homes sold in Q1, down just 4% from the previous quarter, although a 32% decline from the same period last year.

Speaker #4: During the quarter, 11 projects were released, totaling 342 units. About 30% of the new inventory is being presold. The weakest sector in both cities remains the high-rise condominium market, although condo inventory under construction in the GTA has now dropped to 48,000 units, from a high of 104,000 units in mid-2023.

Speaker #4: 48,000 units is well below the 10-year average of inventory under construction. In Vancouver, inventory is also gradually decreasing as completed units are removed from the market.

Speaker #4: One very positive political announcement occurred in Ontario on March 31, the last day of Q1. The federal government and the province of Ontario jointly announced an agreement effective April 1, 2026, to rebate HST to a maximum of $130,000 until March 31, 2027, on all new home sales up to 1.5 million.

Speaker #4: In addition, the two governments agreed to lower municipal development charges by up to 50% for the next three years. According to Urbanation, these two objectives, these two initiatives, would allow a $600 square foot condo in Toronto priced at $756,000 to be repriced at $652,000, so a material change.

Speaker #4: The reduced price would shrink the gap between new and resale prices, from 38% to 20%. A premium that is in line with historic benchmarks.

Speaker #4: Although there's some short-term confusion of how the HST rebate will exactly be applied, there's already substantial anecdotal evidence that new home sales increased substantially in April, particularly among low-rise developers.

Speaker #4: To conclude, we had good results in Q1 and the portfolio quality was virtually unchanged despite sluggish conditions in the residential and multi-residential markets. With an anticipated repayment of $41 million of stage three loans by the end of May, stage three balances likely to drop materially in Q2.

Speaker #4: We expect more loan origination will be generated from Western Canada in the second half of 2026. In Q1, we successfully recruited an experienced and well-known non-bank lender to open a new office for Atrium in Alberta.

Speaker #4: That office will cover all of the Prairie Provinces. As I mentioned in the past, Atrium's results have historically been strong during economic downturns. It is when we really separate ourselves from our peers.

Speaker #4: In Q1, Atrium continued that legacy of delivering strong results in today's challenging lending environment. We remain in good shape financially, and have capital readily available to take advantage of opportunities in the market.

Speaker #4: That's it for the presentation, but we'd be pleased to take any questions from the listeners.

Speaker #1: The Q&A session will now begin. Please enter star two on your keypad to let the operator know you have a question. First question goes to Zachary Wiseboard, RiseBroad, from Anacord Genuity.

Speaker #1: Zachary, please go ahead.

Speaker #3: Hey, good morning.

Speaker #4: Good morning.

Speaker #3: I'm wondering if you can provide some color on any operational objectives for 2026, whether it's diversifying the portfolio geographically, or growing exposure to certain asset types.

Speaker #4: Sure. I mean, geographically, we’d like to do more business in Western Canada, both in B.C. and the Prairies. However, that’s not to say that we’re overly concerned with the weighting we have right now in Ontario.

Speaker #4: If you look at, over the last 25 years, how we've performed in Ontario, it's been exceptional. Including up to this quarter. And it's because we have 12 underwriters in Ontario, so we've been around for so long, and we have such a big team that we really feel comfortable with sort of the market penetration we have.

Speaker #4: We know virtually every real estate developer and real estate investor certainly in the GTA and so we tend not to make mistakes. We tend to do very well in the province.

Speaker #4: But we would like to expand geographically in BC, and we would obviously like to start lending in Alberta and the prairie provinces as well.

Speaker #4: I'm hopeful that in the long term, each province can be in the 15% range, maybe higher. But that'll take a few years. It's not going to happen overnight.

Speaker #4: In terms of sectors, the last three years we've been working really hard at doing more apartment lending, do more single-family mortgage lending, and do more commercial lending.

Speaker #4: Why? Because it's more resilient in today's market. And it's a very competitive part of the market, but we've done a really good job of we've more than doubled our penetration in those markets in the last three years.

Speaker #4: So we have made progress.

Speaker #3: Okay, appreciate that. And for the four loans, that you mentioned that we're in the stage two bucket and subsequently renewed, can you provide some detail on the borrowers and the collateral there?

Speaker #4: I don't have the four loans in front of me, but they are all if you look at risk profile, those are all stage one loans.

Speaker #4: It's just they were passed maturity. Okay, I was just handed yeah, I was just handed the four loans. So one is a 3.3 million dollar mortgage.

Speaker #4: It's at King and Spadina. Fully leased. Unbelievably strong sponsor. One of the stronger loans we have in the books. And it was in negotiation over rate.

Robert Goodall: One of the stronger loans we have in the books. There was a negotiation over rate, that's what this was all about, and terms. A second one is a loan, actually on a single condominium unit. We're less than 50%. Again, a negotiation over rate. Third one is CAD 9.2 million. Again, the terms of the extension were really the issue, not the risk profile of the loan. The fourth one is a small assembly. Again, these were all renewed, and we weren't asking for pay downs or anything like that 'cause we're completely satisfied with the loans.

Rob Goodall: One of the stronger loans we have in the books. There was a negotiation over rate, that's what this was all about, and terms. A second one is a loan, actually on a single condominium unit. We're less than 50%. Again, a negotiation over rate. Third one is CAD 9.2 million. Again, the terms of the extension were really the issue, not the risk profile of the loan. The fourth one is a small assembly. Again, these were all renewed, and we weren't asking for pay downs or anything like that 'cause we're completely satisfied with the loans.

Speaker #4: That's what this was all about. And terms. A second one is a loan actually on a single condominium unit. We're less than 50%. Again, a negotiation over rate.

Speaker #4: Third one is a 9.2 million. And again, the terms of the extension were really the issue, not the risk profile of the loan. And the fourth one is a small assembly.

Speaker #4: And again, these were all renewed and we weren't asking for pay downs or anything like that because we're completely satisfied with the loans. A lot of times, borrowers will look, well, they're always looking for the best rate they can get and the best terms they can get.

Robert Goodall: You know, a lot of times borrowers well, they're always looking for the best rate they can get and the best terms they can get. They knew perfectly well we wanted to keep the loans, but they wanted to be assured that they were getting the best deal they could get in the marketplace. Had nothing to do with risk. Absolutely zero to do with risk.

Rob Goodall: You know, a lot of times borrowers well, they're always looking for the best rate they can get and the best terms they can get. They knew perfectly well we wanted to keep the loans, but they wanted to be assured that they were getting the best deal they could get in the marketplace. Had nothing to do with risk. Absolutely zero to do with risk.

Speaker #4: And they knew perfectly well we wanted to keep the loans, but they wanted to be assured that they were getting the best deal they could get in the marketplace.

Speaker #4: Had nothing to do with risk. Absolutely zero to do with risk.

Speaker #3: Okay, that's great to hear.

[Analyst]: Okay. That's great to hear.

Zachary Weisbrod: Okay. That's great to hear.

Robert Goodall: Those are the rules of IFRS 9. Don't ask me whether they make sense or not, but those are the rules of IFRS 9.

Rob Goodall: Those are the rules of IFRS 9. Don't ask me whether they make sense or not, but those are the rules of IFRS 9.

Speaker #4: Those are the rules of IFRS 9. Don't are the rules of IFRS 9.

Speaker #3: Understood. And just a question on modeling. G&A and professional fees, we're up year over year. I know part of that was from the new auditor.

[Analyst]: Understood. Just a question on modeling. G&A and professional fees were up year over year. I know part of that was from the new auditor. Would the cost in Q1 be an appropriate run rate to use for the remainder of 2026?

Zachary Weisbrod: Understood. Just a question on modeling. G&A and professional fees were up year over year. I know part of that was from the new auditor. Would the cost in Q1 be an appropriate run rate to use for the remainder of 2026?

Speaker #3: Would the cost in Q1 be an appropriate run rate to use for the remainder of 2026?

Speaker #4: I'll let Chris answer that one.

Robert Goodall: I'll let Chris answer that one.

Rob Goodall: I'll let Chris answer that one.

Speaker #5: Yeah, I think that would be a good starting point to measure out the rest of the year. I think we generally should be in line with that.

Chris: Yeah. I think that would be a good starting point to measure out the rest of the year. I think we generally should be in line with that.

Chris Anastasopoulos: Yeah. I think that would be a good starting point to measure out the rest of the year. I think we generally should be in line with that.

Speaker #3: Okay, thanks, Rob and Chris. I'll turn it back.

[Analyst]: Okay. Thanks, Rob and Chris. I'll turn it back.

Zachary Weisbrod: Okay. Thanks, Rob and Chris. I'll turn it back.

Speaker #4: Okay.

Robert Goodall: Okay.

Rob Goodall: Okay.

Speaker #1: The next question is from GramWriting of BB Securities. Gram, please go ahead.

Rachel Smith: The next question is from Graham Ryding of TD Securities. Graham, please go ahead.

Operator: The next question is from Graham Ryding of TD Securities. Graham, please go ahead.

Speaker #4: Hi, good morning. Hi, good morning. Just want to maybe touch on your extension into Alberta. You've pushed into this market previously and then pulled back.

Graham Ryding: Hi, good morning.

Robert Goodall: Morning

Rob Goodall: Morning

Graham Ryding: just wanna maybe touch on your expansion into Alberta. You know, you've pushed into this market previously and then pulled back. It does seem like the timing is better to be moving into that province now. Can you just talk about sort of your strategy here of how you're approaching moving into that market, I guess prudently without sort of, you know, protecting the portfolio against outsized losses? How do you go about that?

Speaker #4: It does seem like the timing is better. To be moving into that province now. Can you just talk about sort of your strategy here of how you're approaching moving into that market, I guess, prudently without sort of protecting the portfolio against outsized losses?

Speaker #4: How do you go about that?

Robert Goodall: Yeah. We're not gonna do a ton of development financing. We might do some depending on the co-covenants. We see that it'll be mostly commercial loans. That would be my guess. The real issue is the quality of person you have. You know, nobody can say that the Toronto market has been good the last 3 years, and yet we've had virtually no losses in this market, and it's because of the quality of the team. We're really pleased with the person we got. 20 to 25 years of experience, most of it in non-bank lending. Senior director where he was at one of the largest non-bank lenders in the province. I think it might be the largest non-bank lender in the province.

Speaker #5: Yeah, so, I mean, we're not going to do a ton of development financing. We might do some, depending on the covenants. So we see that it'll be mostly commercial loans.

Rob Goodall: Yeah. We're not gonna do a ton of development financing. We might do some depending on the co-covenants. We see that it'll be mostly commercial loans. That would be my guess. The real issue is the quality of person you have. You know, nobody can say that the Toronto market has been good the last 3 years, and yet we've had virtually no losses in this market, and it's because of the quality of the team. We're really pleased with the person we got. 20 to 25 years of experience, most of it in non-bank lending. Senior director where he was at one of the largest non-bank lenders in the province. I think it might be the largest non-bank lender in the province.

Speaker #5: That would be my guess. But the real issue is the quality of person you have. Nobody can say that the Toronto market has been good the last three years, and yet we've had virtually no losses in this market.

Speaker #5: And it's because of the quality of the team. We're really, really pleased with the person we got—20 to 25 years of experience, most of it in non-bank lending.

Speaker #5: Senior director where he was at one of the largest non-bank lenders in the province. I think it might be the largest non-bank lender in the province.

Speaker #5: And we offer a really compelling employment opportunity because he gets to run the entire prairie provinces and build a team. Which he wouldn't have had the same opportunity to do where he was.

Robert Goodall: We offer a really compelling employment opportunity because he gets to run the entire prairie provinces and build a team, which he wouldn't have the same opportunity to do where he was. Regardless, you know, you can't go into a province short term and say, Okay, because there's a good run, and I agree there is a good run, but that's not entire. If we hadn't found the right person, we would not have hired in Alberta. We were not committed to hire at all costs in Alberta unless we got the right person.

Rob Goodall: We offer a really compelling employment opportunity because he gets to run the entire prairie provinces and build a team, which he wouldn't have the same opportunity to do where he was. Regardless, you know, you can't go into a province short term and say, Okay, because there's a good run, and I agree there is a good run, but that's not entire. If we hadn't found the right person, we would not have hired in Alberta. We were not committed to hire at all costs in Alberta unless we got the right person.

Speaker #5: So regardless, you can't go into a province short term and say, "Okay, because there's a good run," and I agree there is a good run.

Speaker #5: But that's not entirely—if we hadn't found the right person, we would not have hired. We would not have hired in Alberta. We were not committed to hire at all costs in Alberta unless we got the right person.

Speaker #4: Okay, great. That's it for me. Thank you.

Graham Ryding: Okay, great. That's it for me. Thank you.

Speaker #5: Okay, thank you.

Robert Goodall: Okay. Thank you.

Rob Goodall: Okay. Thank you.

Speaker #1: It appears that there are no other questions at this time. Now I'd like to give the call back to Robert Goodall for closing statements.

Operator 2: It appears that there are no other questions at this time. I would now like to give the call back to Robert Goodall for closing statements.

Operator: It appears that there are no other questions at this time. I would now like to give the call back to Robert Goodall for closing statements.

Speaker #4: Okay, thank you. And thanks, everyone, for attending our conference call this morning. We're pleased with the results. I hope you guys are as well.

Robert Goodall: Okay, thank you. Thanks everyone for attending our conference call this morning. We're pleased with the results. I hope you guys are as well. For our existing shareholders, thank you for your continued support in the company. Have a great day.

Rob Goodall: Okay, thank you. Thanks everyone for attending our conference call this morning. We're pleased with the results. I hope you guys are as well. For our existing shareholders, thank you for your continued support in the company. Have a great day.

Speaker #4: For our existing shareholders, thank you for your continued support in the company. Have a great day.

Speaker #1: Thank you for participating. This conference call is now concluded. Please hang up.

Operator 2: Thank you for participating. This conference call is now concluded. Please hang up. Recording paused. Your line has been disconnected by the moderator. Goodbye.

Operator: Thank you for participating. This conference call is now concluded. Please hang up.