5 Relative Price Strength Stocks to Buy Amid Rising Rates

A 25bp Federal Reserve rate increase, rising Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns drove greater equity-market volatility and a lower S&P 500, although consumer spending, productivity and capital investment remained resilient. Zacks advocates a relative-price-strength screen with positive Q1 estimate revisions, highlighting PSX, SIG, HPQ, BILL and MPC. Notable 2026 earnings-estimate growth projections include 318.6% for Phillips 66 and 420.3% for Marathon Petroleum, while their consensus estimates rose 42.9% and 55.4%, respectively, over 60 days.

Analysis

The screen is not an independent catalyst; it is a momentum-and-revisions factor basket that can attract short-lived retail/quant flows but offers limited informational edge. The more useful signal is dispersion: MPC and PSX have direct operating leverage to refined-product cracks and crude differentials, whereas their elevated earnings-growth optics likely reflect normalization from a depressed base. A sustained move higher in crude does not automatically help refiners—if product demand softens or crack spreads compress, refinery earnings can miss despite higher headline energy prices.

BILL is the most rate-sensitive name in the group: higher-for-longer conditions pressure SMB formation, payment volumes and the valuation multiple assigned to its long-duration earnings stream. Conversely, a decline in real yields over the next 1-3 months could generate a sharper upside rerating in BILL than incremental estimate revisions imply, making it a cleaner expression of disinflation than HPQ. HPQ’s earnings resilience is more likely a capital-return and cost-control story than a growth inflection; PC demand and print consumables remain vulnerable if corporate IT budgets tighten.

SIG is the key consumer read-through. Resilient aggregate spending can coexist with trade-down in discretionary jewelry, and rising financing costs disproportionately affect higher-ticket bridal purchases. Over 6-18 months, persistent inflation would favor off-price and value retail while limiting SIG’s multiple expansion; a favorable outcome requires gross-margin stability and evidence that unit volumes—not only pricing and mix—are holding.

Consensus may be overextending recent price strength into a broad cyclical endorsement. With yields rising, factor leadership should remain concentrated in cash-generative value/energy rather than expand uniformly into consumer discretionary and unprofitable-growth-adjacent software.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a tactical long MPC / short BILL pair for 1-3 months, sized beta-neutral: it expresses higher-for-longer and energy resilience while reducing market-direction exposure. Reassess if 10-year real yields fall materially or BILL raises forward payment-volume/gross-margin guidance; target roughly 10-15% relative return, with a 5-7% relative stop.
• Do not chase PSX or MPC solely on estimate revisions. Add only on pullbacks if refining crack spreads remain firm and management confirms throughput/capture-rate durability; hedge with a modest short XLE or long USO only if the objective is isolating refining margins from crude-beta risk.
• Use SIG as a consumer-risk watch rather than a momentum long ahead of the next earnings cycle. A downgrade in comparable-sales or gross-margin guidance would support a 3-6 month short versus XRT; invalidate on sustained positive transaction growth and stable promotional intensity.
• For a disinflation reversal, wait for confirmation from falling real yields and improving SMB data before considering a 3-6 month long BILL versus HPQ. The missing confirmation is payment-volume acceleration and net-revenue-retention stabilization; without it, multiple expansion is unlikely to persist.