BofA discusses PJM, ERCOT power markets at Georgia forum

Bank of America expects 20–30 GW of ERCOT datacenter load to materialize in 2028–2030, against approximately 32 GW of advancing and committed large load in provisional Batch Zero; ERCOT uncertainty may persist through the election and legislative pre-filing period. Winter pricing is about $45/MWh, with batteries limiting scarcity pricing and shifting system pressure to later hours. In PJM, the bank expects a revised Section 205 filing and FERC approval by year-end, potentially enabling an early-2027 capacity auction; datacenter capacity requires about $50 billion of investment per GW.

Analysis

The headline is not supported by the body: this is a Bank of America forum recap, with no Samsung event and no Goldman Sachs-specific operating or earnings information. Do not trade Samsung or GS off the headline; the event itself does not establish a material catalyst for BAC either.

The investable signal is a widening split between firm, contractable power demand and speculative scarcity pricing. If PJM procurement shifts mainly to bilateral agreements, contracted generators may gain revenue visibility while the price-capped central auction offers less upside than headline capacity shortfalls imply. In ERCOT, battery additions can suppress scarcity rents even as load grows, and transmission delays could defer both datacenter demand and generation monetization. This makes long-duration merchant exposure less straightforward than the demand narrative suggests.

Over 1–3 months, the key catalysts are PJM’s revised filing/FERC process and ERCOT legislative developments; neither alone proves load will connect. Over 6–18 months, interconnection and transmission execution, plus the mix of inference versus interruptible training workloads, should determine whether data-center demand supports reliable contracted power or just adds forecast volatility. The consensus risk is treating projected gigawatts as near-term, price-setting load. No high-conviction directional trade is warranted until contracts, load milestones, and transmission progress are verified.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No trade in BAC or GS on this item; the body provides no firm-specific earnings catalyst, and the Samsung/Goldman headline is mismatched to the underlying report.
• Treat PJM bilateral contracting as a potential relative tailwind for generators able to secure firm agreements, not as proof of a broad capacity-price rally. Reassess after the revised Section 205 filing and FERC action.
• Keep ERCOT merchant-power exposure tactical rather than extrapolating projected data-center load into scarcity pricing. Battery deployment may cap peak rents, while transmission constraints can delay demand realization.
• Watch for falsification: materially weaker PJM bilateral procurement, adverse FERC action, ERCOT transmission slippage, large-load cancellations or deferrals, and forward power prices failing to reflect contracted demand.