World’s largest olive oil company says market has 'definitively' entered new phase

The important read-through is not “olive oil is cheaper,” but that a once-cyclical pantry item may be shifting from a scarcity trade back toward a normal consumer staple. That helps branded importers and grocery retailers more than growers: if volatility compresses, the edge moves from owning inventory to owning shelf space, package design, and repeat purchase behavior. The squeeze-bottle angle matters because it suggests the category can still take share from adjacent cooking fats and dressings even if commodity pricing becomes less dramatic.

Second-order, lower and more predictable pricing should improve household trial and repeat rates in the U.S., which can widen the category’s addressable base over the next 1-3 quarters. That is constructive for premium grocers and health-oriented food aisles, but it is not enough to create a clean equity long unless a company has meaningful mix leverage or branded pricing power. The bigger loser is any high-cost producer or small importer that was surviving on scarcity-driven margins; normalization usually exposes weak operators first.

The contrarian risk is that consensus may be underestimating how fast the cycle can re-tighten. Climate and disease risk mean the supply curve is still convex; a single weak Iberian harvest can reverse the price story within one growing season, so this is not a durable disinflation regime. If wholesale EVOO re-accelerates above roughly €5/kg or U.S. household penetration stalls for two consecutive quarters, the “stable market” thesis starts to fail.