Netflix, MercadoLibre, and Tesla Are All Underperforming the S&P 500. Here's the 1 Stock I'd Buy in September.

The article highlights a deceleration in Netflix revenue growth (from 18% to 11.7% targeted), near-term bottom-line pressure at MercadoLibre from loan-loss provisions and margin sacrifices (e.g., subsidized free shipping), and Tesla’s improving sequential revenue growth (26% YoY) offset by margin collapse—free cash flow turned negative and profitability cut in half. Despite these headwinds, MercadoLibre is viewed as the most attractive September buy on a valuation basis (about 35x next year’s profit target), while Netflix is flagged for slower growth and Tesla is considered too richly valued without clearer consumer robotics visibility. The piece frames all three as lagging the rising market—down 14% (NFLX), 3% (MELI), and 21% (TSLA) in 2026—suggesting a stock-specific, not market-wide, impact.

Analysis

The relative-value setup favors MELI over both NFLX and TSLA on a 1-3 month horizon. MELI’s margin pressure looks mostly self-inflicted and strategic: it is buying share in a still-early penetration market, which should keep revenue compounding faster than operating expense growth once credit loss seasoning improves. The second-order winner is likely the ecosystem around MELI’s payments/logistics stack; the losers are smaller regional marketplaces and fintech lenders that lack balance-sheet capacity to subsidize customer acquisition.

NFLX is the cleaner quality name, but the issue is not valuation so much as decelerating incremental growth: at this stage, every revenue slowdown makes the multiple more fragile because there is less room for the market to underwrite a longer-duration reacceleration story. That makes NFLX more of a cash-flow compounder than a near-term growth re-rating candidate. A sustained ad-tier or pricing-upgrade surprise is the main catalyst that could reverse sentiment over the next 1-2 quarters.

TSLA remains the most vulnerable because the market is still pricing in distant optionality while near-term economics are being diluted by promotional intensity and capex-heavy bets. The key risk is that any further margin compression or negative FCF forces another reset in the multiple before robotics/autonomy can matter; the thesis only improves if Tesla can show several quarters of margin stabilization without relying on discounts. Contrarianly, the market may be underappreciating how much upside MELI has if credit losses peak sooner than expected, while overestimating how quickly TSLA’s long-dated autonomy story can support today’s valuation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long MELI / short NFLX for a 1-3 month relative-value trade: MELI has the stronger reinvestment-backed growth runway, while NFLX needs a growth reacceleration to justify further multiple expansion. Falsify if NFLX reaccelerates back toward mid-teens revenue growth or MELI’s loan-loss provisions keep rising into the next print.
• Buy MELI on a 2-4 week pullback rather than chasing strength; target holding period 6-12 months. The risk/reward is best if the market continues to punish near-term margin misses while ignoring the compounding value of share gains. Exit if operating margin deterioration lasts more than two quarters.
• Avoid initiating new TSLA longs until free cash flow turns positive again and gross margin stabilizes for at least one quarter. The stock is still priced for a narrative transition that remains too far out; if that discipline fails, the setup favors further multiple compression over time.
• If owning NFLX, treat it as a quality hold rather than a momentum buy. Add only if revenue growth stabilizes and the market stops paying for deceleration risk; otherwise, the stock can stay range-bound despite strong earnings leverage.