Should Investors Buy FET Stock After Its Massive 207% One-Year Run?

Forum Energy Technologies shares have risen 206.7% over the past year, supported by a Zacks consensus forecast for 536.5% year-over-year EPS growth in 2026. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $870-$910 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $115-$125 million, implying roughly 13% revenue growth and 40% EBITDA growth. Net debt declined to about $115 million and leverage fell to 1.1x, while the company repurchased roughly $8 million of stock in 1H 2026 and expects 60%-70% of incremental EBITDA to convert to free cash flow.

Analysis

FET's rerating now depends less on another upward revision and more on proving that higher-margin consumables and aftermarket sales can persist through a flat-to-down North American activity environment. The relevant KPI is revenue per active rig and international order conversion, not aggregate rig count: sustained outperformance would justify a premium to NOV's more capital-equipment-heavy cycle exposure. Conversely, the headline EPS growth rate is a low-base comparison and is unlikely to support the equity if EBITDA-to-free-cash-flow conversion misses management's target.

Near term, the risk is asymmetric after the sharp run: a merely in-line quarter could trigger multiple compression because consensus appears to be capitalizing several years of share gains immediately. Over the next 1-3 months, watch bookings, backlog quality, working-capital consumption and the split between replacement/consumable demand versus project equipment. A decline in international tenders, a sustained sub-$60 WTI environment, or a cut to the EBITDA range would challenge the thesis faster than reported revenue, which can lag order deterioration.

The more interesting relative-value expression is FET versus NOV, rather than outright oilfield-services beta. FET has potentially greater operating leverage to aftermarket mix and geographic share gains, while NOV retains greater exposure to large, lumpy customer capital budgets. The contrarian view is that FET's balance-sheet improvement could enable selective bolt-on acquisitions, but with limited liquidity, any acquisition that raises leverage or consumes free cash flow would likely be penalized rather than rewarded.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase FET immediately after the momentum move; establish only a half-size long following the next earnings release if bookings and revenue-per-rig metrics remain positive and management reiterates the $115-$125 million EBITDA range. Add on confirmation of free-cash-flow conversion rather than EPS upside.
• Consider a 3-6 month pair trade: long FET / short NOV, sized beta-neutral. The thesis is continued aftermarket/share-gain execution at FET against slower large-project equipment spending at NOV; exit if FET cuts EBITDA guidance, reports material working-capital drag, or NOV's order backlog accelerates materially.
• Use FET as a small-cap, high-volatility satellite position rather than a core energy holding; cap gross exposure given likely thinner liquidity and the risk of a 20%+ de-rating on an execution miss. Take partial profits if valuation expands without corresponding bookings or cash-flow upgrades.
• Set alerts for WTI below $60/bbl, a sequential decline in international orders, or net leverage moving back above roughly 1.5x EBITDA. Any of these would weaken the claimed resilience of the recurring-demand model and warrant closing the relative-value long.