Why SpaceX Stock Took Flight Today

SpaceX shares rose as much as 6.4% and were up 4.9% at 11:47 a.m. ET after Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated an overweight rating and $300 price target, implying 89% upside from Friday’s close. Jonas called the stock “cheap” relative to its growth, citing a growth-adjusted valuation multiple of 0.3 versus 0.5 for a basket of mega-cap AI stocks. Elon Musk confirmed discussions with TSMC about a potential Texas chipmaking facility that would supply Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI exclusively, but said a deal is not certain; SpaceX also faces execution risk on its AI data-center plans.

Analysis

The bullish valuation case is unusually sensitive to long-dated assumptions: a 2028 EV/EBIT comparison does not capture the capital intensity, funding needs, or execution risk of building AI compute infrastructure, particularly in space. The growth-adjusted multiple is only persuasive if xAI converts demand into durable, cash-generative workloads; it is not a substitute for evidence on backlog, utilization, unit economics, or required investment. That makes the analyst’s target a weak basis for chasing a sharp near-term move.

A TSMC-operated Texas facility could strengthen supply assurance for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, but the economics depend on process technology, committed volumes, customer funding, and who bears utilization risk. Until those terms are known, this is an option on future capacity—not confirmed incremental earnings for TSMC. If capacity is dedicated to this customer group, the second-order risk is less flexibility to serve other customers; if the project stalls, the strategic narrative can unwind without a meaningful near-term earnings change.

Over 1–3 months, the key catalysts are concrete project terms and evidence of xAI/compute demand, not repeated discussion or bullish commentary. Over 6–18 months, execution, capital intensity, and realized AI infrastructure returns determine whether the growth premium is justified. The consensus may be underweighting potential upside, but may also be treating distant growth as if it were low-capital and near-certain.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase SPCX after the jump on an analyst reiteration and preliminary discussions. Reassess only against verifiable xAI revenue/backlog, compute utilization, capex and funding disclosures; those are the missing inputs to the valuation thesis.
• Treat TSM as a watch rather than a confirmed beneficiary. Upgrade the thesis only if disclosed terms identify process generation, committed wafer volumes, timeline, capex allocation, and customer obligations; otherwise the earnings impact is too uncertain to underwrite.
• For an existing SPCX position, consider trimming into strength or keeping exposure sized for a high-variance, long-duration thesis. Falsifiers include delayed or abandoned infrastructure plans, weaker xAI demand evidence, rising investment needs without corresponding contracted revenue, or guidance that pushes cash returns further out.
• Avoid using AMZN, GOOG, or META as a direct short against this story: their AI economics and businesses are not equivalent to space-based compute. Monitor relative performance, but wait for evidence that SpaceX’s infrastructure offers viable cost, utilization, or customer advantages before expressing a substitution trade.