5 Relative Price Strength Stocks to Buy Amid Rising Rates

Zacks identified Phillips 66, Signet Jewelers, HP, BILL Holdings and Marathon Petroleum as relative-strength candidates with positive earnings-estimate revisions amid higher rates and market volatility. The largest revisions were for MPC (+55.4% for 2026 EPS over 60 days) and PSX (+42.9%), with consensus projecting 420.3% and 318.6% respective 2026 earnings growth. The article flags persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields and oil prices as near-term risks, but views resilient consumer spending and economic activity as supportive of a selectively positive equity backdrop.

Analysis

This is a low-information momentum screen rather than a differentiated fundamental catalyst; the signal is most actionable in refiners, where earnings revisions can reflect rapidly changing crack-spread assumptions. MPC and PSX have already absorbed substantial cycle optimism, so incremental upside over the next 1-3 months requires product cracks and throughput to remain elevated—not merely crude strength. PSX has more diversification through midstream and chemicals, while MPC offers higher operating leverage to U.S. refining margins; that makes MPC the higher-beta long and PSX the more defensive expression.

Higher-for-longer rates create a less favorable backdrop for SIG, HPQ and BILL than for energy: SIG is exposed to discretionary-ticket demand and financing availability; HPQ faces corporate-PC replacement-cycle and inventory risk; BILL remains duration-sensitive because much of its valuation rests on outer-year profit conversion. The non-obvious beneficiary of resilient refining economics is U.S. midstream/logistics, where volume and export activity can support fee earnings even if crack spreads normalize; WMB or KMI offer lower-volatility alternatives to outright refinery beta.

Contrarian view: consensus screens often chase revisions after commodity-price moves, precisely when refinery equities are most vulnerable to a crack-spread rollover. A decline in gasoline/distillate cracks, weak U.S. product-demand data, or a material rise in refined-product inventories would compress 2026 estimates quickly and likely overwhelm technical strength. For BILL, the positive revision is potentially more meaningful because the stock has not participated in the broad momentum trade, but it needs evidence of accelerating core transaction/payment volume and durable margin expansion to avoid another multiple-led reversal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer a 1-3 month long PSX / short MPC pair if refining exposure is required: PSX's diversified earnings base should cushion a crack-spread normalization, while MPC's higher refinery beta is likely to underperform if margins roll over. Close if U.S. gasoline cracks widen materially or MPC relative performance breaks upward after earnings.
• Do not initiate fresh outright MPC or PSX momentum longs after the recent revision surge; instead, monitor weekly EIA gasoline/distillate inventories and Gulf Coast crack spreads. Add only on a pullback with confirmed inventory draws and unchanged refinery utilization guidance; target mid-single-digit upside versus comparable downside if cracks soften.
• Establish BILL as a small, catalyst-driven long only ahead of results if management can validate payment-volume growth and operating-margin expansion; use a 3-6 month horizon and size for high volatility. Falsify on a slowdown in SMB customer growth, weaker take rate, or forward EBITDA guidance below consensus.
• Underweight SIG versus XLY over the next quarter: jewelry demand has asymmetric downside if real rates rise or credit stress reaches middle-income consumers. Cover if comparable-sales trends improve while gross margin holds, indicating that demand is absorbing price/mix pressure.
• Use HPQ as a neutral-to-underweight hardware exposure until enterprise-PC demand and print supplies are independently confirmed in guidance; repeated earnings beats alone are insufficient if revenue remains flat. A sustained corporate refresh cycle or improved free-cash-flow outlook would invalidate the cautious view.