Soybean Oil Market Size to Reach $57.66 Billion by 2031 Driven by Biofuel Demand and Supply-chain Traceability, Reports Mordor Intelligence

Mordor Intelligence projects the global soybean oil market will grow from $43.87 billion in 2026 to $57.66 billion by 2031, a 5.62% CAGR, supported by renewable diesel and biofuel demand. Record-high U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026-27 are expected to drive biodiesel and renewable diesel production more than 60% above 2025 levels, strengthening demand and domestic crush margins. Brazil and Argentina are adding crushing capacity, while the EU's December 30, 2026 deforestation-regulation deadline raises the value of traceable, certified soy supply chains.

Analysis

The investable variable is not aggregate soy-oil demand growth but the spread between crush economics and renewable-fuel credit values. ADM has partial protection through processing scale and merchandising, but incremental North American feedstock demand can be met by imported used cooking oil, tallow, canola oil, and South American soy oil; this caps the direct upside to domestic crushers if D4 RINs or California LCFS credits weaken. The press-release growth estimates are not independently investable evidence and should not drive earnings revisions without observed crush margins, biofuel credit pricing, and ADM utilization data.

EU traceability creates a near-term basis and customer-segmentation opportunity rather than a broad commodity-price bull case. Large, integrated originators with segregated procurement, geolocation records, and port logistics can retain higher-value EU flows; smaller Brazilian suppliers may be forced to discount uncertified cargoes into Asia. ADM's relative advantage versus less integrated processors is likely modest because compliance spending is largely pass-through, while the greater profit pool may accrue to certified-origin merchants and logistics providers rather than oil refiners.

Over 1-3 months, watch whether South American crush additions convert projected supply into export pressure; if so, soybean-oil prices can fall even as volume expands, compressing processors' oil contribution unless meal values offset it. Over 6-18 months, policy-driven demand remains vulnerable to a credit-price reset, feedstock eligibility changes, or renewable-diesel capacity rationalization. A sustained decline in D4 RINs/LCFS credits, ADM crush-margin guidance below plan, or widening South American export discounts would falsify a constructive ADM thesis.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No standalone directional ADM purchase on this release; treat as a monitoring catalyst. Reassess after the next ADM earnings release if North American crush margins and biofuel-linked volumes improve while D4 RINs and LCFS credits remain firm.
• Prefer a conditional relative-value long ADM versus short XLP over the next 3-6 months only if renewable-credit pricing is stable: ADM has operating leverage to processing/merchandising normalization, while staples remain exposed to input-cost pass-through limits. Exit if ADM cuts segment-profit guidance or South American oil export discounts widen materially.
• Set alerts for D4 RIN and California LCFS credit declines of 20%+ from current levels; such a move would impair renewable-diesel feedstock bids and is a cleaner trigger to reduce any oilseed-processing exposure than headline market-growth forecasts.
• Watch Bunge (BG) and ADM EU-facing traceability disclosures ahead of the December compliance deadline. If either reports certified-volume premiums or customer wins without offsetting compliance-cost inflation, consider a 6-12 month long in the better-disclosing operator; absent that evidence, the regulatory effect is not yet a trade.