Prediction: If a September Sell-Off Hits Speculative AI Stocks, Quantum Computing Falls First

Quantum computing stocks have underperformed the Nasdaq-100 in 2026 tech sell-offs, with IonQ/D-Wave/Rigetti/QUBT declining more sharply than QQQ on 17 of 23 days (about 74% of the time). Despite stronger traction and guidance from IonQ (Q2 revenue +287% YoY to $80.1M; 2026 revenue guidance raised to $280M–$290M), the stock still trades at ~52x forward sales, leaving limited downside buffer versus valuation-compression risk. The sector remains vulnerable to macro volatility around the Aug. jobs report (Sept. 4) and Fed meeting (Sept. 15–16), even as large cash balances reduce near-term financing concerns (e.g., IonQ ~ $3B cash/investments; Rigetti $541.3M; D-Wave $546.2M).

Analysis

This is a duration-and-liquidity trade, not a clean stock-picking story. In a risk-off tape, the market does not pay for “future revenue” first; it compresses the multiple on the farthest-dated cash flows, which is why these names can underperform even when operating metrics improve. Over the next 1-3 months, the key variable is not quantum adoption, but whether QQQ de-rates on jobs/Fed surprises and drags the whole speculative cohort with it.

The second-order effect is that public market weakness can spill back into the quantum ecosystem: harder hiring, less generous stock-based comp, and a higher bar for strategic funding or partnerships. That matters because these companies are still in the phase where access to capital and equity currency are part of the operating model; a lower share price does not just hit sentiment, it can slow commercialization pace versus better-capitalized incumbents in adjacent “future tech” buckets. By contrast, proven semis and mega-cap AI infrastructure should be relatively insulated as capital rotates toward names with visible earnings power.

The contrarian miss is that strong balance sheets cap the blowup risk, so the downside here is mostly valuation air-pocket, not insolvency. That argues for trading the factor, not the story: if these stocks stop bleeding harder than QQQ on down days, the de-rating thesis weakens quickly. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower on every macro scare, with the next catalyst window around the jobs data and Fed meeting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short a basket of IONQ/QBTS/RGTI/QUBT versus long QQQ into the September macro window; thesis is continued factor underperformance in risk-off days. Risk/reward is attractive if QQQ sells off 3%-5% and the basket reprices 2x on the downside; cover if the basket starts outperforming QQQ on broad tech down days.
• Use 3-6 month put spreads on IONQ or RGTI after any relief rally rather than chasing weakness. This expresses multiple-compression risk while limiting carry, and it only works if speculative growth remains out of favor; abandon if the names hold gains through the Fed meeting.
• Monitor QQQ down-day relative performance as the key falsifier: if quantum stocks stop underperforming on 1.5%+ QQQ selloffs, the bear case is losing momentum. That would be the first signal to reduce shorts and shift to a watchlist rather than a position.