3 Reasons SpaceX Stock Could Drop 30% by 2028

The market is likely shifting from scarcity pricing to survivability pricing. That matters because SPCX sits at the far end of the “unprofitable growth with a narrative” spectrum, where multiples are most sensitive to any sign that spending will outpace monetization for longer than expected. If that re-rating starts, the spillover is not just to the stock itself but to every late-stage private AI/space story that depends on a similar assumption set: perpetual capital access, premium valuation, and patient holders.

The near-term risk is a sentiment vacuum, not a fundamental collapse. Over the next 1-3 months, the key catalyst is whether management can show evidence of operating leverage or whether investors keep extrapolating burn into a larger financing need; if the latter, the stock becomes a financing-driven short rather than a narrative one. The main falsifier is a credible path to segment-level margin inflection or a material contract/partnership that monetizes the AI thesis faster than expected.

Contrarian view: the move may be partly overdone because post-IPO de-ratings often overshoot when float is tight and positioning is crowded to one side. But the burden of proof is on the bulls — unless the company can convert optionality into measurable cash flow, the valuation can stay under pressure for 6-18 months even if the underlying business remains strategically interesting. The cleaner expression is relative value: own profitable AI exposure while fading the longest-duration, cash-burning version of the theme.