Forget the Fed and Oil Prices: The Real Recession Risk Is the $39.5 Trillion U.S. Debt Bomb

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.06% at auction—the highest since 2007—far above the roughly 2% level in early 2022. With federal debt at $39.5T and a $1.37T deficit this fiscal year, issuance is crowding out private investment and pushing long-term rates higher, a shift likely to weigh on rate-sensitive assets.