SoFi Stock Is Cheap Now, StoneX Says After 40% Drop

StoneX initiated coverage of SoFi with a Buy rating and a $25 price target, implying roughly 64% upside from Monday’s $15.23 close, arguing the stock’s roughly 42% year-to-date decline overstates business risks. In 2Q26, adjusted revenue rose 40% year over year to a record $1.2 billion, above $1.12 billion estimates, while membership grew 35% to 15.8 million; SoFi raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $4.75 billion–$4.85 billion but kept adjusted EPS guidance at $0.60, citing uncertainty around potential Fed rate hikes. Shares had fallen 9% after the July report and were up 0.23% at $15.27 at publication; analysts’ average $19 target implies about 24.8% upside.

Analysis

The setup is an expectations mismatch, not proof of cheapness: revenue growth has not translated into a higher profit outlook, and the unchanged EPS guide leaves operating leverage and rate sensitivity unresolved. The market may be discounting the durability and quality of growth—particularly loan returns and credit performance—rather than simply missing the current growth rate. Verify delinquency/charge-off trends, loan-sale economics, deposit costs, and contribution profit by segment before treating the selloff as dislocation.

The stablecoin is potentially strategically valuable as a retention and transaction layer, but app access is not evidence of meaningful revenue or user adoption. Its economics depend on repeat usage, reserve yield, redemption behavior, and regulatory treatment. In the near term, the more material catalyst is whether upcoming results show profit conversion without deterioration in credit or funding costs; rate uncertainty can affect both loan demand and deposit economics. Over 6–18 months, demonstrable stablecoin engagement could strengthen the product ecosystem, while regulatory constraints or weak usage would leave the valuation case reliant on lending and cross-selling.

The analyst target is a house view, not a catalyst, and the broad bullish lean may already make another upgrade less incremental. The contrarian risk is that the market is correctly demanding earnings evidence after growth outpaced the unchanged profit outlook. A sustained improvement in operating profit and credit metrics would challenge that skepticism; weaker credit, deposit economics, or guidance would validate it.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not trade the StoneX target as a standalone signal. Treat SOFI as a watch-to-own candidate pending confirmation that revenue growth is converting into adjusted profit.
• Consider a staged SOFI long only after the next earnings update confirms profit conversion and stable or improving credit metrics. Define risk around a deterioration in guidance, delinquencies/charge-offs, or deposit costs; no price target is justified from the information provided.
• Before sizing exposure, verify loan performance by product, funding costs, loan-sale gains or losses, and segment contribution profit. These are the missing data most likely to distinguish an earnings inflection from growth with weak incremental returns.
• Track SoFiUSD adoption and disclosed economics separately from the lending thesis: user activity, transaction volume, reserve arrangements, and regulatory developments are needed before assigning material value to the stablecoin business.
• No immediate PIPR position follows from its analyst's rating change on SOFI; the article provides no evidence of a material earnings or valuation impact for Piper Sandler.