SoFi has lost nearly half of its value in 2026. StoneX sees recovery ahead

StoneX Financial initiated coverage of SoFi with a buy rating and a $25 price target, implying 64% upside from Monday’s close, arguing the stock’s roughly 42% year-to-date decline does not reflect its operating progress. SoFi’s 2Q26 adjusted net revenue grew more than 40% year over year, and StoneX cited potential profit conversion, member growth and the company’s U.S. bank-issued stablecoin franchise. Analyst views remain divided: 12 of 27 covering analysts have buy or strong-buy ratings, 12 have holds and three have sells.

Analysis

The upgrade is a sentiment catalyst, not proof that the sell-off has created a durable valuation gap. The key underwriting question is whether acquisition spending has built cohorts that retain deposits and add products at attractive economics—or merely bought headline growth. Over the next 1–3 months, track customer and product growth alongside marketing intensity, adjusted profit conversion, deposit pricing, and credit performance; growth that requires rising acquisition cost or deposit rates would weaken the flywheel case.

The stablecoin opportunity is the least verified part of the bull case. If it becomes a useful payment or settlement rail, it could improve engagement and product cross-sell; if adoption is limited or rules constrain bank-issued tokens, it may add execution and compliance costs without material earnings. It also competes for attention with established crypto rails such as Coinbase and Circle, rather than guaranteeing SoFi an uncontested position.

Near term, the coverage change may support a rebound after a sharp drawdown, but divided analyst ratings and a single bullish initiation make follow-through dependent on company results. Over 6–18 months, sustained profit conversion and durable deposit/member economics could support rerating; deteriorating credit, expensive funding, or slower engagement could instead expose the growth investment as a drag. The thesis is falsified by a slowdown in member/product growth accompanied by weaker profit conversion, worsening credit metrics, or deposit growth that requires materially less attractive pricing.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase the analyst note alone. Consider a small, risk-defined SOFI long only if the next report confirms growth is translating into improving profit conversion without deterioration in credit or deposit economics.
• Use the next 1–3 months as a verification window: monitor marketing expense relative to revenue growth, deposit costs, credit performance, and member/product engagement. If growth decelerates while acquisition or funding costs rise, avoid or reduce the long.
• Treat the stablecoin narrative as an upside option, not a base-case earnings driver, until SoFi discloses measurable adoption and economics and the regulatory path is clearer; compare execution against Coinbase and Circle rather than assuming first-mover advantage.
• No clean pair trade is established by the article. Reassess a relative-value position against fintech peers only after comparing valuation, credit exposure, deposit funding, and customer-acquisition economics on consistent disclosures.